re: HBO without cable = $15/month...worth it?

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Longer term it might be bad.

Short term, if cable splinters into pick and choose options, there are going to be a ton of channels that dissolve almost overnight.

That means less content. You might hate The Chick Channel in Flannel Vision, but someone else might love it and without package deals it wouldn't exist.

Also, HBO will eventually realize the stand alone channel isn't making them as much money long term so they either limit content and rotate it to keep people using the service or they raise the price.

I still want the option to pick and choose, but I think it will be a bumpy bloody road ahead for LOTS of content providers.

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Agreed, but I think some of the losses won't be bad, and some could be. But that we'll have to reach an equilibrium and costs stabilize. I don't think HBO can charge more than $15 a month especially if their rotated content is small (have all their produced shows, plus a selection of film/docs/etc) I mean, you could make it through their episodic content in under 6 months (at least the good bits of it).

I think there's a pretty good argument about niche vs. wide appeal. The value of cable has been a plethora of niche content and a conversely uneven amount of good content on general audience providers. I think we'll see less channels with more packed content....and much of the niche going to streaming only and probably seeing a lowered bar in production costs.