re: Mike and Mike posed an interesting question

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I would think that is pretty accurate

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That assumes you have a 2.5% chance of making one shot. I think that is a bit high, especially considering the pressure of the situation.

People are treating the statistics of this as if each shot is dependent on the last shot, but it isn't. If you flip heads 9 straight times, the chance of heads on the 10th flip is still 50/50. If you miss the first 15 shots, your chances of making one in the last 5 certainly do not go UP.