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re: "Half the schools are below average" - not always true
Posted on 9/30/14 at 6:58 pm to SpidermanTUba
Posted on 9/30/14 at 6:58 pm to SpidermanTUba
quote:Almost everyone will give the wrong answer almost every time.
According to Taleb (I forget if he cites a source or not) - doctors will give the wrong answer almost every time.
The general public has a tough time figuring out 20% of 150 of the top of their heads; they darned sure aren't gonna get that question right.
1
Posted on 9/30/14 at 7:02 pm to SettleDown
quote:
Almost everyone will give the wrong answer almost every time. The general public has a tough time figuring out 20% of 150 of the top of their heads; they darned sure aren't gonna get that question right.
PhD level mathematicians and statisticians thought Savant incorrectly solved the Monty Hall problem. Conditional and Bayesian probability is often difficult to reason quickly.
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