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re: What is your outlook on the economy?

Posted on 9/11/14 at 11:48 pm to
Posted by Doc Fenton
New York, NY
Member since Feb 2007
52698 posts
Posted on 9/11/14 at 11:48 pm to
Well first, I assume you mean 2005-07, which were years of nearly complete gridlock on Capitol Hill when it took serious logrolling to even continue war funding. But that's not the main point.

To this day, no President has ever done more to try to transform the federal entitlement problem than Bush. Not only did he do it, but he spent the first 6 years of his presidency attacking this problem on every major front--education, health care, Social Security, & immigration.

In every single case, he went beyond the headline grabbing issues that get superficial talking heads fired up, and sought instead to solve the larger term problems. In every case, he tried to find ways to gradually build greater choice into the system.

The goal of standardized testing for schools was to provide a metric that would allow for increasing voucherization.

The goal for the MMA of 2003 was to build market choice into the system so that eventually the Behemoth of federal health care could be tamed by similar voucherizations. He had to twist every arm to get that bill passed, and it ended up watered down and compromised, but then so did everything else during his terms, because he never had very much solid support from his own party for the things he was trying to do.

He went into 2005 with almost zero public support for Social Security reform, and right from the start, that's what he put all his energy into. It had no traction with his own party, so he had to give it up. Ditto for immigration reform in 2006 & 2007.

I mean, my God, look at some of the GOP senators who were holding that tenuous majority together from 2003 to 2007. There is no way in hell they were ever going to come out in favor of serious entitlement reform.

Meanwhile, there's a couple of wars going on (and thank God we entered the one in Iraq, because the entire world would be shite out of luck right now if we hadn't), a stock bubble to recover from, global warming and campaign finance zealots and corporate governance campaigners in his own party to make compromises with, etc., etc., etc.

In other words, he had no political capital to do anything more than what he was barely able to do as it is. He tried as hard as anybody could possibly imagine a person in that situation doing, and one might even criticizing him for wasting too much effort on trying entitlement reform schemes that had no chance of working.

In any case, in terms of U.S. politicians taking serious steps toward resolving the entitlement behemoth since WWII, there is George W. Bush, there is Paul Ryan, and then there is nobody else. Bush in particular pretty much marched up the hill and stormed the castle without anyone else at his side (outside of people at think tanks) to help him lead the charge. Maybe Hensarling deserves a mention, but I can't really think of anyone else.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Carolinas
Member since Sep 2003
124542 posts
Posted on 9/12/14 at 12:13 am to
quote:

Doc Fenton
Well put!

quote:

In any case, in terms of U.S. politicians taking serious steps toward resolving the entitlement behemoth since WWII, there is George W. Bush, there is Paul Ryan,
Rand Paul probably deserves mention there, though obviously not in conjunction with passing GWB's programs.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Carolinas
Member since Sep 2003
124542 posts
Posted on 9/12/14 at 12:15 am to
Also would be a thought-provoking OP if you cross-posted it to the PTB.
Good stuff
Posted by BennyAndTheInkJets
Middle of a layover
Member since Nov 2010
5611 posts
Posted on 9/12/14 at 4:52 pm to
quote:

Well first, I assume you mean 2005-07, which were years of nearly complete gridlock on Capitol Hill when it took serious logrolling to even continue war funding. But that's not the main point.

Shouldn't have included '04 due to the election year, and I also should've been more clear when I said real entitlement reform. Everything you said about Bush is very true, and admittedly I let emotions take over when thinking about this one (very rarely happens since I'm dead inside and stuff). Bush did do more than any other President regarding entitlement reform, but even you have to admit the end product was entirely on the margin. Also true that this was primarily not his fault, as his own party were the real ones to blame for more not getting done (didn't 9 Dems have to cross for MMA to pass because 10 Pubs voted against it or something like that?). I chose '05 because no first term President could ever make this happen. It would have to be a samuri falling on the sword move.

I'm referring primarily to the 2005 DRA, and I'm going to try and do as best I can with this explanation because I am not seasoned in applicable policy and I lost my notes from this meeting years ago . It's not very well known, but the original drafts and conversations on this bill would have truly made a real impact at the heart of deficit reduction. The end result of the bill was nothing more than some hot button changes to penalty periods with nursing homes, weak caps on eligibility to Medicaid funded nursing home coverage, forced some applicants to spend before applying for assistance, and then a myriad of several accounting and qualification changes. I actually wasn't even aware of this until I was in a conference room and Glenn Hubbard was speaking fairly candidly, but apparently the original drafts of this had several cuts to eligibility that would put back of the napkin absolute nominal cuts in the trillions over the decade. I'm not referring to the accounting treatments the CBO uses assuming 4.5% GDP growth for calculating potential tax receipts somehow spawned from signed acts like cabbage patch kids. I mean real cuts. Extensive eligibility requirements, much more mandatory personal expensing, real cold-hearted shite that is actually needed to make a true dent here. The story is George didn't even try to take it to bring this up with his constituents before watering it down first.

Yes, I know this was likely the only possible and smart move by Bush. Yes, I know Hubbard left the WH staff in '03 so this could be very convoluted from what actually happened. Yes, I know there is less than a 5% chance it would've even gotten to the floor. Yes, I know I'm being irrational here. But frick man, this really was our only shot during our lifetime. I know I'm here, but he could've tried to force the bill through as much as he could early in '05 and let himself be the scapegoat while the GOP Congress spent the next 3 years distancing themselves politically from him. Yes, I know that would've nuked any chance of him getting anything done the rest of his presidency. Yes, I know it would've in all likelihood nuked the GOP (even though 20/20 hindsight they were fricked anyway the next couple election cycles). Yes, I know my irrationality is concerning right now. But you and I both know we won't have a real shot at making real dents here the rest of our lifetimes. Somebody will have to be the scapegoat, whether it be a politician or the population. Yes, I know this is completely unfair to blame Bush. But unfortunately now we will have an endless series of infected Band-Aids over the years to reactively deal with entitlements as issues chronically rise rather than a true surgical procedure to proactively make a real fix.

frick it, markets closed, I'm going to drink. Why don't you come to the MT anymore Fenton?

[neglected needy girl voice]
You never debate Japanese monetary policy with me anymore...
[/neglected needy girl voice]
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