re: What is your outlook on the economy?

I'll give you my final thoughts and let it rest. Over the long term, debt for consumption is not sustainable, because it does not produce a positive ROI. Instead, it has to be paid for with lower future consumption. Debt for production can, if used wisely, pay for itself, but artificially suppressed interest rates and moral hazard (bailouts) lead to unwise debt even in the productive sector.

We have ventured far from a sustainable debt model, over many decades. All the excess debt fueled consumption will be followed by a long period of reduced consumption and that will wreak havoc on a consumption based economy. Attempts to thwart that correction will cause currency destruction on a widespread scale.