Here is the way I look at it. It will be a very physical game. IMO LSU will win either a close game or run away with it. The Wisconsin 2nd year coach is a smart coach and will have a few surprises for LSU like he did as DC for Utah when they beat AL in the Sugar Bowl. But the fact that their supposedly good OL has several 5th year seniors make me think that they are long on experience but short on talent. Like against Iowa LSU team speed will ultimately be the difference. This is especially true on defense.

If the LSU QB don't melt down this game will be further apart than 4 points. If they give a really good performance it could be 14-17 points.

1 ...

Report Post

Posted by JPLSU1981

Baton Rouge

Member since Oct 2005

26427 posts

Posted on 8/18/14 at 12:09 pm to LSUstephen17

My week1 parlay...all money line bets (just win straight up, no spread)

$65.00 to win $403.83
20 Team Parlay
Pending 8/28/14 8:00pm College Football 139 Mississippi -360* vs Boise State
Pending 8/28/14 9:15pm College Football 142 Vanderbilt -800* vs Temple
Pending 8/29/14 7:00pm College Football 145 BYU -900* vs Connecticut
Pending 8/29/14 10:30pm College Football 154 Arizona U -2400* vs UNLV
Pending 8/30/14 12:00pm College Football 157 Ohio State -1000* vs Navy
Pending 8/30/14 12:00pm College Football 159 UCLA -1650* vs Virginia
Pending 8/30/14 12:30pm College Football 168 NC State -1800* vs Georgia Southern
Pending 8/30/14 3:30pm College Football 170 Nebraska -2300* vs Florida Atlantic
Pending 8/30/14 3:30pm College Football 173 Marshall -2500* vs Miami Ohio
Pending 8/30/14 3:30pm College Football 176 Notre Dame -1375* vs Rice
Pending 8/30/14 10:30pm College Football 195 Washington U -700* vs Hawaii
Pending 8/30/14 8:00pm College Football 200 Texas -2500* vs North Texas
Pending 8/30/14 9:00pm College Football 203 LSU -175* vs Wisconsin
Pending 8/28/14 7:00pm College Football 254 Minnesota U -690* vs Eastern Illinois
Pending 8/30/14 12:00pm College Football 282 Iowa -975* vs Northern Iowa
Pending 8/30/14 12:00pm College Football 284 Kentucky -1125* vs Tennessee-Martin
Pending 8/30/14 4:00pm College Football 294 Virginia Tech -1200* vs William & Mary
Pending 8/30/14 3:30pm College Football 296 Maryland -1700* vs James Madison
Pending 8/30/14 3:30pm College Football 302 Missouri -7500* vs South Dakota State
Pending 8/30/14 6:00pm College Football 312 North Carolina -7500* vs Liberty

*i also have the exact same parlay without LSU on it, risk $35 to win $150ish

0 ...

Report Post

Posted by Suthndawg

Georgia Mountains

Member since Sep 2009

49 posts

Posted on 8/18/14 at 12:14 pm to Bill77379

I will bet LSU -4 as I feel the Wisconsin running is solid but they are too one dimensional to move the ball consistently against your defense. DBs will be able to cheat up and support the front 7. Not sure about your passing game yet with the loss of Mett and the two big receivers but your running backs should wear down the Wisky defense. Think you win by 10+

I understand all the rationale for taking the under but I hate unders and in the college game it is a dangerous play. If I were betting it, I would favor the under. The other reason is thius game is picked as a once score game, or stated another way, close. That brings the tie into it and that could add 20 more points (they need to change that and make the O/U just the regulation game.

Good luck, I think you guys have a good chance of making it to Atlanta this year. Hope we see you there.

0 ...

Report Post

Posted by atltiger6487

Member since May 2011

18188 posts

Posted on 8/18/14 at 1:44 pm to Dubaitiger

quote:
Book makers are supposed to beat the average gamblers

No, all bookmakers do is set (and adjust) the lines so that equal money is bet on both sides and they pocket the juice. That's all it is.

Sometimes they look like geniuses and other times they're way off. Sure, there are times when the bets aren't equal and the bookies have a financial interest in the outcome, but not usually.

0 ...

Report Post

Posted by Magicmikeforlsu

Cenla

Member since Oct 2012

1771 posts

Posted on 8/18/14 at 1:48 pm to TIGERhype

Under

0 ...

Report Post

Posted by Ebbandflow

Member since Aug 2010

13457 posts

Posted on 8/18/14 at 1:57 pm to whoknows1390

quote:
same here. LSU -4 looks good but I'm obviously bias.

So you're the embodiment of bias? I can't bet on LSU because I'm biased.

0 ...

Report Post

Posted by La Place Mike

West Florida Republic

Member since Jan 2004

28896 posts

Posted on 8/18/14 at 2:17 pm to LSUstephen17

Rule number one when betting on LSU. Always take LSU as the dog and refrain from betting when LSU is picked to win.

1 ...

Report Post

Posted by wahoocs

Lafayette, LA

Member since Nov 2004

22402 posts

Posted on 8/18/14 at 2:40 pm to La Place Mike

Whether you realize it or not, this applies to all bets.

Taking the points always is percentage points better than the favorites.

1 ...

Report Post

Posted by atltiger6487

Member since May 2011

18188 posts

Posted on 8/18/14 at 3:50 pm to wahoocs

quote:
Taking the points always is percentage points better than the favorites

I don't think you're right.

I didn't do any deep research, but very quickly found the following quote, for NFL games going back to 2008:

"We have opening and closing point spreads for 1597 games since the 2008 season. In those games, the Opening Favorite went 763-791-43 and covered the spread 49.1% of the time."

I would think if you take an even bigger sample size over many years, you'd find favorites cover 50% of the time.

Page 1 2 3