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re: Why is this organization digging themselves in such a deep hole?

Posted on 7/1/14 at 2:05 pm to
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
39261 posts
Posted on 7/1/14 at 2:05 pm to
grizzlies are an excellent example...i'd be thrilled to be a part of what they've had the last few years

i didnt agree with trading for holiday, and i didnt agree with over paying evans to come here. i wanted to make one more draft pick and see what happened then

however, that may be just being risk-averse.
found this on the sbnation blog, it's long, but it is well argued:

quote:



Benson is paying a $6.7 Million “Luxury Tax” for Omer Asik this season, as his cap number is only $8.3M yet the actual money going out of Benson’s pocket is $15M. Even if Demps strips this roster to the bare bones and fills it with minimum players Benson pays nearly $70M in salaries.

Benson employs the most expensive professional coach in all American sports.

Why should I believe Benson won’t spend? Because he doesn’t think a winning product balances the books? He has ample evidence (and the fact that I am currently 40,396th on the waiting list) next door that winning absolutely does balance the budget of a sports franchise. He isn’t looking to sell this franchise, he is looking to pass it down to his granddaughter.

I firmly disagree with the expectation that this is the best roster the Pelicans will put around Davis. Asik will sign a contract in the range of Tiago Splitter’s or his own previous contract next summer. $8-9 Million. Even if Asik is signed for $10 Million next season (with a decreasing contract, a la Splitter, or Ryan Anderson, or Tyreke Evans) the Pelicans look like this…

Gordon, Holiday, Evans, Anderson, Davis, Asik, Rivers – $66M.

The cap is projected to be $66M. Why do the Pelicans need to spend big on more role players? Have we learned nothing from Demps pulling adequate rotation players on minimum contracts from Europe?

2016-2017, Pelicans have Holiday, Evans, Davis (at max, let’s say that’s $18M), and Asik. So just under $50M committed to four players.

Holiday – Age 26
Evans – Age 27
Davis – Age 23
Asik – Age 30

They have $15-20 Million in cap space and the 2016 First Round Draft Pick. I just don’t see any reason to panic. If I have to pick between an actual NBA player who is young and could develop or a completely unproven player who could develop I want the player.

You use the 76ers as an example. Would you buy season tickets to that this year? What about next? How long can a franchise sell “hope”? They do not have a star yet on that roster. They don’t even have an above average starter. The Pelicans have FIVE players who are above average starters (Holiday, Evans, Asik, Anderson) or superstars (Davis). Right now.

As I stated before, the adjectives are what bother me most of all. I disagree with the tone. We obviously disagree with how we believe a team should be built.

You use Minnesota as an example. They didn’t go big early, they didn’t chase free agents. They went into the lottery over and over again. It shouldn’t be the case against the Pelicans method. It is the case FOR the Pelicans method.

Minnesota got Kevin Love in 2008. In 2009 they selected 5th (Ricky Rubio), 6th (Jonny Flynn), 18th (Ty Lawson), and 28th (Wayne Ellington). They traded the 18th pick for a future pick (hey, more assets!!) In 2010 they selected 4th (Wesley Johnson) and 30th (Lazar Hayward). In 2011 they selected 2nd (Derrick Williams).

In four seasons the Timberwolves had FIVE lottery picks (Love, Rubio, Flynn, Johnson, Williams) and EIGHT first rounders (Lawson, Ellington, Hayward). You look at where they are now and say, “man, we need to build through the draft with young guys that COULD become something?” That is foolish! The evidence of how “future assets” turn bad is the example you are pointing to. You are literally proving the point that the draft is an absolute crap shoot. There is one OKC. Then there is Sacramento, and Minnesota, and Cleveland, and Detroit.

Heck, Charlotte (Zeller, then Vonleh) and Sacramento (McLemore, then Stauskas) just drafted the same position in BACK TO BACK lotteries. Because the draft is a crap shoot and even when a guy has the physical tools or the game tape or whatever they still might bust.



LINK
This post was edited on 7/1/14 at 2:07 pm
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
425883 posts
Posted on 7/1/14 at 2:36 pm to
i love that minny/charlotte discussion

building through the draft is super duper rare and very difficult
Posted by burdman
Louisiana
Member since Aug 2007
20745 posts
Posted on 7/1/14 at 2:41 pm to
Great article.

I like this part..

quote:

You use Minnesota as an example. They didn’t go big early, they didn’t chase free agents. They went into the lottery over and over again. It shouldn’t be the case against the Pelicans method. It is the case FOR the Pelicans method.


Is there a team besides OKC that has been successful drafting high multiple years in a row?

IMO, OKC skewed people's perception. Obviously if you hit on a Durant, Westbrook & Harden 3 years in a row, you'll be a good team (throw Ibaka in there too). But how often does that happen?

I think we will see down the road that Philly's strategy won't turn out as planned. I could be dead wrong, but I like the signing young veterans approach as opposed to being in the top 10 of the draft year after year.

Posted by Colonel Flagg
Baton Rouge
Member since Apr 2010
22874 posts
Posted on 7/1/14 at 4:23 pm to
Gordon is overpaid, but if I had to guess he is also an above average starter.
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