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Started By
Message
re: BOIL has become predictable
Posted on 9/4/14 at 9:58 am to Ole War Skule
Posted on 9/4/14 at 9:58 am to Ole War Skule
^
What are you long in, and what is your average price? If you're long natural gas, predicated on entry price I bet you make money by January.
What are you long in, and what is your average price? If you're long natural gas, predicated on entry price I bet you make money by January.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 9:58 am to L S Usetheforce
Note I still own 2000 of kold at 37.50 and I will sell @51 if it drops.... But ill hold if not and use that profit to buy more ugaz if it trends down.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 10:01 am to L S Usetheforce
Feb 40/48 bear put spread on KOLD.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 10:03 am to Iowa Golfer
Options heaven today in natty gas etf and etn's.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 10:08 am to Iowa Golfer
"What are you long in, and what is your average price?"
I've had UGAZ at 25.15 since 6/20/14, down 45%, lost so much now, I was just going to hold till spring and hope for the winter prices to bail me out.
I tripled my position yesterday at 14 hoping for a short term pop to get some of my losses back.
I know supplies have increased dramatically in last few years, but UGAZ seemed to have a pretty solid bottom around 14. I guessed everyone was selling to that support prior to the release this morning, and after the no-news release, it would pop for an 'easy' 10-20%.
WRONG
I've got a trailing % stop on the new shares and will hold the old ones till I get even or lose it all
ETA: My avg cost on all shares is now 17.34.
I generally have zero faith in chartists or technical analysis, but this seems a pretty solid bottom
I've had UGAZ at 25.15 since 6/20/14, down 45%, lost so much now, I was just going to hold till spring and hope for the winter prices to bail me out.
I tripled my position yesterday at 14 hoping for a short term pop to get some of my losses back.
I know supplies have increased dramatically in last few years, but UGAZ seemed to have a pretty solid bottom around 14. I guessed everyone was selling to that support prior to the release this morning, and after the no-news release, it would pop for an 'easy' 10-20%.
WRONG
I've got a trailing % stop on the new shares and will hold the old ones till I get even or lose it all
ETA: My avg cost on all shares is now 17.34.
I generally have zero faith in chartists or technical analysis, but this seems a pretty solid bottom
This post was edited on 9/4/14 at 10:26 am
Posted on 9/4/14 at 10:09 am to L S Usetheforce
Hub is trading at a 10 cent premium to the Oct contract, $3.95 vs. $3.85. I think we'll see futures test $3.60 by the end of the month.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 10:25 am to sneakytiger
I with you sneaky.........I took half of my risk out on kold and used the profit to buy ugaz.......I'm now hedging my profit.....I'll buy more ugaz if kold goes up and if not......I'll sell at my price point and make money on both sides.....
One question: WHY would anybody buy ugaz at 25.25?
One question: WHY would anybody buy ugaz at 25.25?
Posted on 9/4/14 at 10:25 am to sneakytiger
IF HH is at $3.95 today, that's actually up a penny from yesterday's cash close.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 10:28 am to Iowa Golfer
ETA: My avg cost on all shares is now 17.34
You should be ok at $17.00. You just need to be disciplined. There's nothing for you to do on this trade now except for wait for winter weather. If I was you, I'd lose the trailing stop.
You should be ok at $17.00. You just need to be disciplined. There's nothing for you to do on this trade now except for wait for winter weather. If I was you, I'd lose the trailing stop.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 10:30 am to L S Usetheforce
quote:
WHY would anybody buy ugaz at 25.25?
same reason everyone else did at the time (june)...there was 'no way' reserves could be built to anything close to historical averages by winter and the price would rise like it did every other time....
it ain't over yet...I've got forever for the market to get things straight...
Posted on 9/4/14 at 10:34 am to Ole War Skule
I bought back my $5 jan/feb calls, and went out long further. Probably not the bottom, but based on iv I'm longer than before this morning.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 10:36 am to Ole War Skule
quote:
same reason everyone else did at the time (june)...there was 'no way' reserves could be built to anything close to historical averages by winter and the price would rise like it did every other time
this whole thread stated the exact opposite though.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 10:47 am to L S Usetheforce
quote:
this whole thread stated the exact opposite though.
thanks for rubbing it in...I read much of the thread as well as the opposite opinion from other sources...I wrongly decided that commodity supply and price projections would be more reliable from established professional sources than an LSU sports message board
I assumed that the horrible logic and advise I wallow through on OT and Rant somehow had relevance to the level of expertise on the MT board....big mistake
Posted on 9/4/14 at 10:51 am to Iowa Golfer
Sorry, I'm a day behind. That's yesterday's close and I rounded up a penny
Posted on 9/4/14 at 10:54 am to Ole War Skule
Still trying to decide on this
I did some excel estimating for the spring summer and would have made money on those trades. Now I am trying to figure out what's a good plan for the fall/winter.
I did some excel estimating for the spring summer and would have made money on those trades. Now I am trying to figure out what's a good plan for the fall/winter.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 11:08 am to Ole War Skule
quote:
I assumed that the horrible logic and advise I wallow through on OT and Rant somehow had relevance to the level of expertise on the MT board....big mistake
Not horrible logic at all. There were a ton of analysts beating that drum on a daily basis over the summer. Think of it like the "it'll never get finished on time!!!" theme on the rant.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 12:23 pm to sneakytiger
quote:
...I wrongly decided that commodity supply and price projections would be more reliable from established professional sources than an LSU sports message board
Terrible idea.......actually though, on that point since money talk has existed, I've been much more informed and made waaaaay better plays than before it........so although I take everybodys opinion with a grain of salt, I also use some of their input.......
This post was edited on 9/4/14 at 12:24 pm
Posted on 9/4/14 at 12:58 pm to L S Usetheforce
Wait, so everyone here is getting smoked?
This post was edited on 9/4/14 at 12:59 pm
Posted on 9/4/14 at 1:01 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
quote:
Wait, so everyone here is getting smoked?
Not me.......I just cashed out a profit of almost 38G's
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