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Message
Let's take a step back and look at LSU's program
Posted on 10/22/13 at 11:46 am
Posted on 10/22/13 at 11:46 am
I have not posted on here in awhile but wanted to put in my $.02. I'm blessed to be an LSU alum as well as one of two smaller teams with very uninteresting and passionless athletic programs. We're fortunate to love a team which is nationally relevant, because it's not all that common. Usually we win, sometimes we don't.
I hate the general excuse in life, "hey, it could always be worse," but things are what they are, and we are still in elite company.
Many are frustrated because of the expectations have fallen short relative to the associated costs of supporting LSU, talent, and the success of rivals. I get it.
Let's look at the programs since 2008, after the National Championship. In that time period, we're arguably a top 5 program. Bama is clearly tops. LSU, Oregon, Ohio State, Oklahoma to a lesser extent are probably most consistent. Auburn, Florida obviously have their rings and some down years. Stanford has been good. Boise and TCU have been good, but are not a threat and have fallen off. Texas and USC have declined significantly from the beginning of the decade with greater resources and history than LSU.
That's pretty elite company, as it should be. LSU is relevant, very relevant.
Now let's look at how we've done vs. our biggest rivals:
Alabama: 2-4, likely 2-5
Auburn: 5-1
Florida: 3-3
Ole Miss: 3-3
Arkansas: 3-2, likely 4-2
Combined that's 16-13, likely 17-14.
LSU's record against those teams when they were ranked at the end of the year? Anywhere from 4-12 to 6-11 depending on how this year goes and without a winning record against any of the four teams when they were at their best.
That's what's most disappointing, IMO. It may not always be pretty, but LSU takes care of business against bad teams, Ole Miss being the exception. But, we're losing more than we win at the most critical times over the last 5.5 years.
So, that's where we are. We had hoped for a championship, or at least a net improvement from last year. Odds are good we will be in a very similar situation as last year at best, barring a miracle turn of events, even a win over Bama will not significantly help our situation. Likely, our peak is the Capital One Bowl. Another CFA or Cotton Bowl appearance is most likely. Knowing this in October pretty much sucks at LSU.
Looking forward, the prevailing fear is that we're losing our edge, be it true or not. LSU was basically a half step behind Bama, now there are legit reasons why that gap is widening and ATM, Ole Miss, and Auburn are closing quick. We have huge recruiting battles left as well as the two biggest games of the year. Much is yet undetermined.
So, where do we go? Love it or leave it. It is what is. We're disappointed, but obviously we all love LSU football for many reasons. Enjoy the ride or get off. The choice is yours to make.
Cliffs:
-We're very much an elite program
-We've struggled vs. our biggest rivals post 2007
-Much yet undetermined in the next 4-5 months that will greatly impact the future
-Enjoy the ride or GTFO
I hate the general excuse in life, "hey, it could always be worse," but things are what they are, and we are still in elite company.
Many are frustrated because of the expectations have fallen short relative to the associated costs of supporting LSU, talent, and the success of rivals. I get it.
Let's look at the programs since 2008, after the National Championship. In that time period, we're arguably a top 5 program. Bama is clearly tops. LSU, Oregon, Ohio State, Oklahoma to a lesser extent are probably most consistent. Auburn, Florida obviously have their rings and some down years. Stanford has been good. Boise and TCU have been good, but are not a threat and have fallen off. Texas and USC have declined significantly from the beginning of the decade with greater resources and history than LSU.
That's pretty elite company, as it should be. LSU is relevant, very relevant.
Now let's look at how we've done vs. our biggest rivals:
Alabama: 2-4, likely 2-5
Auburn: 5-1
Florida: 3-3
Ole Miss: 3-3
Arkansas: 3-2, likely 4-2
Combined that's 16-13, likely 17-14.
LSU's record against those teams when they were ranked at the end of the year? Anywhere from 4-12 to 6-11 depending on how this year goes and without a winning record against any of the four teams when they were at their best.
That's what's most disappointing, IMO. It may not always be pretty, but LSU takes care of business against bad teams, Ole Miss being the exception. But, we're losing more than we win at the most critical times over the last 5.5 years.
So, that's where we are. We had hoped for a championship, or at least a net improvement from last year. Odds are good we will be in a very similar situation as last year at best, barring a miracle turn of events, even a win over Bama will not significantly help our situation. Likely, our peak is the Capital One Bowl. Another CFA or Cotton Bowl appearance is most likely. Knowing this in October pretty much sucks at LSU.
Looking forward, the prevailing fear is that we're losing our edge, be it true or not. LSU was basically a half step behind Bama, now there are legit reasons why that gap is widening and ATM, Ole Miss, and Auburn are closing quick. We have huge recruiting battles left as well as the two biggest games of the year. Much is yet undetermined.
So, where do we go? Love it or leave it. It is what is. We're disappointed, but obviously we all love LSU football for many reasons. Enjoy the ride or get off. The choice is yours to make.
Cliffs:
-We're very much an elite program
-We've struggled vs. our biggest rivals post 2007
-Much yet undetermined in the next 4-5 months that will greatly impact the future
-Enjoy the ride or GTFO
This post was edited on 10/22/13 at 12:27 pm
Posted on 10/22/13 at 11:48 am to Vlad The Inhaler
You posted a thread about Reuban Randle yesterday. LIAR!!!1111111111
Posted on 10/22/13 at 11:53 am to Vlad The Inhaler
quote:
-We're very much an elite program
I wanna believe this, but an elite program does not lose to Ole Miss' second string.
I will always support LSU, but an elite team beats the shite out of Ole Miss Saturday.
Losses happen, but this was a horrible one. All we can do is regroup and play on.
This post was edited on 10/22/13 at 11:55 am
Posted on 10/22/13 at 11:54 am to Vlad The Inhaler
This would be a much more complete argument if you included MSU. If you don't include them, you may as well not include Alabama, Florida, or Ole Miss (Teams we didn't fare well against).
Posted on 10/22/13 at 11:56 am to Vlad The Inhaler
Mettenberger had a bad first half and dug the team into a whole they could not overcome. LSU's defense is not as talented, deep, or experienced as the past few years and it shows like most expected it to this season. Les Miles will always manage the clock poorly. /thread
These reevaluating the program and suicidal threads are getting really old and stupid.
These reevaluating the program and suicidal threads are getting really old and stupid.
Posted on 10/22/13 at 12:01 pm to Vlad The Inhaler
quote:
Vlad The Inhaler
solid
Posted on 10/22/13 at 12:03 pm to Vlad The Inhaler
quote:Not really.
-We're very much an elite program
quote:Yep
-We've struggled vs. our biggest rivals post 2007
quote:Prepare for anal penetration by A&M and Bama (and bowl game if paired vs explosive offense)
-Much yet undetermined in the next 4-5 months that will greatly impact the future
quote:Hard to enjoy a downward trend.
-Enjoy the ride or GTFO
Posted on 10/22/13 at 12:19 pm to Vlad The Inhaler
Outstanding post. I agree with most of it and how it is layed-out is very good. Good cliff notes also.
Posted on 10/22/13 at 12:25 pm to Vlad The Inhaler
Interestingly enough, the fans that post that we should be tolerant with the current situation with LSU's program and reference the success that LSU has had over the past decade often list another school in their profile, e.g. Vlad, Colorado State, ballscaster, Navy. It is also noted that these type of ranters are verbose and condescending to the LSU fans that are sincerely concerned about the direction that LSU's program is headed. I suggest that we ignore anyone that lists another school as their selection as it is evident that their only purpose in life is to invoke adverse reaction to our valid concerns as true LSU fans. It is also noted that the volume of such ranters' posts, i.e. thousands indicate to me , at least, that they don't have much else going on in their lives unfortunately.
Posted on 10/22/13 at 12:30 pm to Vlad The Inhaler
I don't care how many dgrees you have we USED to be an elite program.
We are gradually declining! Texas A&M, FSU, Miami are all strong again. These teams were very strong when we were at our weakest 88-94 they impact were other elite players go.
BTW I'm not goint GTFO. I'll always be a huge fan but I'm a realist unlike you.
We are gradually declining! Texas A&M, FSU, Miami are all strong again. These teams were very strong when we were at our weakest 88-94 they impact were other elite players go.
BTW I'm not goint GTFO. I'll always be a huge fan but I'm a realist unlike you.
Posted on 10/22/13 at 1:05 pm to Vlad The Inhaler
WE WENT 13-0 1.5 YEARS AGO!!!!
DEFEATED HOW MANY RANKED TEAMS? 8?
3 VICTORIES OVER TOP 5 TEAMS, BAMA, OREGON AND ARKANSAS
AND THEN PLAYED THE #2 TEAM A SECOND TIME IN WHAT ENDED UP BEING A REVENGE GAME FOR THEM..
WE ARE FINE!!! BUT THAT REPEAT GAME SUCKED FOR LSU ALL THEY WAY AROUND
WE PLAY OSU, WE WIN THE MNC TITLE AND EVERYTHING TODAY IS A TOTALLY DIFFERENT FEEL TO IT
IT WAS JACKED UP THEY GOT TO PLAY LSU AGAIN
DEFEATED HOW MANY RANKED TEAMS? 8?
3 VICTORIES OVER TOP 5 TEAMS, BAMA, OREGON AND ARKANSAS
AND THEN PLAYED THE #2 TEAM A SECOND TIME IN WHAT ENDED UP BEING A REVENGE GAME FOR THEM..
WE ARE FINE!!! BUT THAT REPEAT GAME SUCKED FOR LSU ALL THEY WAY AROUND
WE PLAY OSU, WE WIN THE MNC TITLE AND EVERYTHING TODAY IS A TOTALLY DIFFERENT FEEL TO IT
IT WAS JACKED UP THEY GOT TO PLAY LSU AGAIN
This post was edited on 10/22/13 at 1:06 pm
Posted on 10/22/13 at 1:31 pm to Vlad The Inhaler
Solid post
Posted on 10/22/13 at 1:54 pm to Vlad The Inhaler
quote:
Cliffs:
solid cliffs on that and i agree will all bullet points
Posted on 10/22/13 at 2:11 pm to Vlad The Inhaler
quote:
Let's look at the programs since 2008, after the National Championship.
Vlad, this is a solid post with some good analysis and level headed comments on the current state of the program. Thank you for sharing.
My only problem is, why start at 2008???
I can understand throwing out Miles' great 3 year start and NC trying to analyze where we are since then, but 2008 is clearly the outlier of the Miles tenure, and since Lee's freshman year combined with the interim failure of Mallveto, the program is simply not the same as it was in that transitional year.
2009 would be a much more honest starting point, and one could even argue that 2010 would be an even better starting point since we had another first year starter at QB in 09 with a new first year DC.
Still, even going back to 09, LSU record against our biggest rivals would look like this:
Now let's look at how we've done vs. our biggest rivals:
Alabama: 2-3 (all 3 losses to NC teams with 1 win over an NC team)
Auburn: 4-1 (loss to a NC team)
Florida: 3-2 (1 loss to NC team, 1 loss to BCS team)
Ole Miss: 3-2
Arkansas: 3-1 (loss to BCS team)
I'd also add Texas A&M: 2-0
Combined that's 17-9 (5 losses to NC team, 7 to BCS teams)
I think that's a much more accurate picture of where we are sitting today.
LSU is an elite program that unfortunately finds itself constantly matched up against an absurd amount of elite teams as well.
LSU is 55-5 against unranked teams in Miles' tenure, with this week's loss to Ole Miss being the first loss to an unranked team since 2008.
If I could pick my biggest concern with LSU at the moment, it would be the bowl record in that same time period of 2009, 1-3. Of course, once again all of those bowl losses were against top 10 teams that won at least 11 games, two of which came in the final minute and the 3rd being a rare and controversial Rematch against a team that we had already beaten on the road.
But the fact remains that Miles needs to get back to his stellar bowl performances when he was 4-0 in his first 4 years with huge wins over some of the best programs in the country at the time.
quote:
Cliffs:
-We're very much an elite program
-We've struggled vs. our biggest rivals post 2007
-Much yet undetermined in the next 4-5 months that will greatly impact the future
-Enjoy the ride or GTFO
All great points
This post was edited on 10/22/13 at 2:21 pm
Posted on 10/22/13 at 2:42 pm to Vlad The Inhaler
quote:
Now let's look at how we've done vs. our biggest rivals:
Alabama: 2-4, likely 2-5
Auburn: 5-1
Florida: 3-3
Ole Miss: 3-3
Arkansas: 3-2, likely 4-2
Combined that's 16-13, likely 17-14.
Why did you pick 08 as your starting point? You do realize that we went 1-4 against those team that year right? 15-9 since 09 sounds a lot better. 13-6 since 10 sounds even better. Or you could just say 28-16 since he has been the head coach. Also, why didn't you list Miss. St? Because we are 9-0 against them since Les has been here?
Posted on 10/22/13 at 5:48 pm to Vlad The Inhaler
I admit you made a good post. Here's what I'm looking at comparing Miles (since coming here) vs Saban (since coming to Bama):
Miles: 52-19 .732
Saban: 43-9 .827
Certainly the records are comparable in a way and yes Miles was here 2 years before Saban came back to college ball but as you mentioned we are not winning the big games. That's what really irritates me the most. I do not want our program to start being compared to UGA. That's pretty much where we're at whether anyone cares to admit it or not.
Miles: 52-19 .732
Saban: 43-9 .827
Certainly the records are comparable in a way and yes Miles was here 2 years before Saban came back to college ball but as you mentioned we are not winning the big games. That's what really irritates me the most. I do not want our program to start being compared to UGA. That's pretty much where we're at whether anyone cares to admit it or not.
Posted on 10/22/13 at 6:07 pm to Vlad The Inhaler
Very good post. I totally agree with y ou.
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