re: CAPE Ratios: How much weight should we assign to them in choosing markets?

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Bubbles happen when people expect future increases in earnings

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‘China screamingly cheap’: Strategist

CNBC.com | Wednesday, 7 Aug 2013 | 1:13 PM ET

Growth in China is strong enough to support specific stories, JPMorgan Private Bank Chief Investment Strategist Kate Moore said Wednesday.

"We still like stocks. We're 'overweight' equities for the first time in several years, and we have high conviction that equities are going to outperform over the next 12 months," she said. "We're 'overweight' the U.S., and we really like U.S. stocks, but I think that's a very consensus call. I think everyone I know is long U.S. dollar assets, is long U.S. large-cap equities, maybe they're sniffing around small caps."

On CNBC's "Fast Money," Moore added that it was time to look outside the United States for continued gains, specifically "in Europe, in Asia and Japan, and looking for good value."

"China is screamingly cheap," she said. "It's at 8½ times forward earnings. It's about a 40 percent discount to developed markets. It's a gigantic 2½ standard deviations cheaper than it historically is, even to developed markets.
"We think a lot of bad news is in the price."

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