Here are the scenarios by my math. A win against Marseille coupled with a BVB loss or tie would guarantee advancement.

3+3->15: 1st
3+1->13: Advance, Likely 1st
3+0->12: Likely Advance
1+3->13: 1st
1+1->11: Likely Advance
1+0->10: Advance if BVB doesn't get 6 points or 4 + GD
0+3->12: Likely Advance and 1st
0+1->10: Likely Advance
0+0->9: Advance if BVB doesn't get 4 points or 3 + GD

This post was edited on 11/6/13 at 7:37 pm

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Posted by glassman

Next to the beer taps at Finn's

Member since Oct 2008

116252 posts

Posted on 11/6/13 at 7:36 pm to NOTORlOUSD

Arsenal is through. Count on it.

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Posted by wm72

Brooklyn

Member since Mar 2010

7804 posts

Posted on 11/6/13 at 8:05 pm to NOTORlOUSD

quote:
3+0->12: Likely Advance

I think this may be the true to the group of death scenario that plays out where Arsenal, Dortmund and Napoli all end up on 12 points and Arsenal and Dortmund advance on goal differential.

Rafa Benetiz may have been a bit too clever in resting so many key players in both legs against Marseilles since now they likely need a point at Dortmund to advance.

The thing I was really wrong about in this group was that I felt like Marseilles would play spoiler by drawing/beating someone but they don't look that good at all.

In those 2 scenarios where Arsenal gets 0 or 1 points against Marseille would seem very likely to result in playing at Napoli and needing points the final day since there's a pretty good chance Dortmund beats Napoli at home and Marseilles away.

This post was edited on 11/6/13 at 8:09 pm

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