re: Falcons in talks with Richard Seymour

quote:

---

almost a sure lock

---

quote:

---

Falcons are almost a sure lock to choke again..

---

fify

quote:

---

Falcons are almost a sure lock for the division crown..

---

I'm trying to figure out what makes you most confident. Is it the 18-18 division record for the Falcons the last 6 years (Saints are 21-15 in division)? Is it the head to head factor against the Saints (Saints are 8-4 in the last 6 years)? Is it the fact that during two of the best Falcons seasons ever (2010 and 2012, going 13-3) the Falcons were 1-1 against the Saints? Is it the fact that the Falcons have finished better than 3-3 in the division just once in the last 8 years (Saints have finished better than .500 in the division 4 of the last 8 years)?

In the last 8 years, the Saints have had a better record 4 seasons, and the Falcons have had a better record 4 seasons. During that time, the Falcons have never had a better record than the Saints 2 seasons in a row.

Seriously? There is very little reason to think that the Falcons will do better than .500 in the division. There is zero reason to think the Falcons will do better than 1-1 against the Saints. There is almost no reason to think the Falcons will duplicate their success from last year. If history has shown anything, it is that it is the Saints turn to win the division next year.

Also, take a look at the schedule Atlanta plays this year. Even when considering the Saints' terrible 7-9 2012 season, the Falcons schedule has increased in difficulty more than anyone else in the NFL going into the 2013 season. In 2012, the Falcons' opponents W-L-T record % was .422. In 2013, that jumps to .504. It is the largest jump out of every team, even with the Saints 7-9 record (which is surely to improve this year).

Falcons fans need to brace for disappointment. Only one team in the last 12 years has had their schedule increase the toughest in the league and not have a 3 game swing in their record. 10-6 is a very realistic ceiling for the Falcons this year.