re: Official Lottery Thread - Pels Pick 6th

Not sure if this should get it's own thread or go in here. Mason over at 247 has done an in depth analysis of the teams we're battling with for ping pong balls, who we're likely to catch and not catch.

quote:

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Given the above data, here are my projections for the NBA draft lottery order as of Tuesday, March 5th, 2013, with each team’s chance at landing the #1 pick:

1. Charlotte Bobcats (17-65) 25.0%
2. Orlando Magic (21-61) 19.9%
3. Sacramento Kings (25-57) 15.6%
4a. Cleveland Cavaliers (26-56) 10.35%
4b. New Orleans Pelicans (26-56) 10.35%
6a. Washington Wizards (27-55) 5.3%
6b. Phoenix Suns (27-55) 5.3%
8. Minnesota Timberwolves (28-55) 2.8%
9. Detroit Pistons (29-53) 1.7%
10. Toronto Raptors (31-51) 1.1%
11. Philadelphia 76ers (33-49) 0.8%
12. Portland Trail Blazers (36-46) 0.7%
13. Dallas Mavericks (37-45) 0.6%
14. Los Angeles Lakers (42-40) 0.5%

As you can see, a one-game difference in the standings could have immense residual impacts on the draft lottery. In fact, before last night’s “unexpected” loss to the Magic, I projected the Hornets to finish 27-55, which would have created a 3-way tie for the 5th-worst record, giving each of those three teams roughly a 6.45% chance at the #1 pick. By adding one more loss to the Hornets’ projection, they move into a 2-way tie for the 4th-worst record, earning them a 10.35% chance at that top pick, a difference of nearly 4%. Even if they don’t luck into the top pick for a second straight season, that one loss could mean the difference between the 7th pick and the 4th pick (going by these projections).

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LINK /

I'm not going to get into the breakdowns, but while I still feel like we are a lot better than most of the teams we are "competing" with here, we have a brutal schedule down the road.

I think we finish tied for 4th. I'd be shocked if we did better than 7th.