The draft is a crap-shoot and the the higher the pick the brighter the light on any mistake. The Saints under the Payton regime have not picked a total bust (the jury is still out on M. Ingram) but they have not exactly hit home runs on any of their first round picks either; at best, they ended up getting utility players.
Here's the list of picks under Payton:
YEAR ROUND PLAYER
2006 2 Reggie Bush 2007 27 Robert Meachem 2008 7 Sedrick Ellis 2009 14 Malcolm Jenkins 2010 32 Patrick Robinson 2011 24 Cameron Jordan 2011 28 Mark Ingram, Jr.
A few things stick out: 1. The Saints haven't been selecting too high and, therefore, the odds of finding a superstar goes down, 2. The only 2 picks we've had in the Top 10 were from USC and both underperformed their contracts (it seems this is the case with most USC players coming into the NFL) and 3. The old adage: "Never pick a running back in the 1st round" still holds.
Conclusions: 1. Trade our first rounder for more picks, 2. Don't pick a player from the Pac 12 (certainly not USC), and 3. Never draft another running back with a 1st rounder.
quote: Conclusions: 1. Trade our first rounder for more picks, 2. Don't pick a player from the Pac 12 (certainly not USC), and 3. Never draft another running back with a 1st rounder.
These are dumb conclusions. So we should never draft a USC player again because 2 players in the history of the Saints didn't work out? Also, you shouldn't say never draft a RB because you don't know what will happen in the future, the next Adrian Peterson could be out there in 5 years
quote: Also, you shouldn't say never draft a RB because you don't know what will happen in the future, the next Adrian Peterson could be out there in 5 years
First round picks are supposed to be more than active starters for your team. As the OP was trying to note.
We definitely have not done well with our 1st picks imo also. Cans future looks bright but the rest of those guys we still have on our roster do not make me think they were good value picks at all.
While I wouldn't call any if them absolute stars, the only "bust" would be Ellis IMO.
I would consider Reggie #1 by far. He was key in the rejuvenation of this team in 06 and our Super Bowl in 09. I personally think Jordan and Ingram will be staples on this team come next year or in the near future.
I would put Meachem, Jenkins, and Robinson about in the same category. While they didn't put up first round #1s, they're key players on our team. Meachem was pretty great in 09.
Also like you mentioned, were not always picking in the top half of the first round.
here's a study of games started by draftees, by round and position
there's a ton of data to mine, the complete story HERE covers a lot.
I have two adds for the Saints. 1.) I'll put their overall drafting under Payton against any other team in the same period. The 1st Rders may be a B or C overall. They have found so many gems later and undrafted the total draft grade the past 6 years is an A for me. 2.) most folks expectations are way too high IMO. Check these charts for success rate and the 1st Rders look much better.
Check THIS big board. Then check THIS grading scale. Notice only 19 players make the grade as 1st Rd selections to be highly productive players.
USC players do get more rating than they are worth on a whole but ya can't throw out the baby with the bath water. I wouldn't mind having these USC draftees-
Matt Kalil Brian Cushing Clay Matthews Rey Maualuga Sam Baker Ryan Kalil Steve Smith Reggie Bush Winston Justice Lofa Tatupu Carson Palmer Troy Polamalu
that's a fair amount of talent for any school over the past 9 years