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Started By
Message
Doing LES with more.....
Posted on 1/3/13 at 5:18 pm
Posted on 1/3/13 at 5:18 pm
I keep hearing how Miles is a great recruiter, and that cannot be denied. What he does with that talent, or the evaluation of the prospects he chooses, however, is a different story.
I provided an AR2 regression structure on recruiting rank and offensive rank for the top 120 teams in college football over the last 4 years. The AR2 structure was determined from a backstepped algorithm to determine the best fit on the lag in the residuals.
As you can see a drop in recruiting rank corresponds to a drop in offensive production. Yes, some teams do better and some worse. Most of the teams that had better offensive ranks with bad recruiting classes come from generally smaller conferences.
I provided LSU in the purple, Alabama in the red for a simple comparison. Although both fall within the prediction interval, the 95% CI shows that Alabama over the same time span has been able to do far better than LSU with the talent they are given, based on a model of all teams in FBS.
I provided an AR2 regression structure on recruiting rank and offensive rank for the top 120 teams in college football over the last 4 years. The AR2 structure was determined from a backstepped algorithm to determine the best fit on the lag in the residuals.
As you can see a drop in recruiting rank corresponds to a drop in offensive production. Yes, some teams do better and some worse. Most of the teams that had better offensive ranks with bad recruiting classes come from generally smaller conferences.
I provided LSU in the purple, Alabama in the red for a simple comparison. Although both fall within the prediction interval, the 95% CI shows that Alabama over the same time span has been able to do far better than LSU with the talent they are given, based on a model of all teams in FBS.
17
Posted on 1/3/13 at 5:20 pm to CptBengal
frick you, I'm a KIN major.
Posted on 1/3/13 at 5:21 pm to CptBengal
quote:
I provided LSU in the purple, Alabama in the red for a simple comparison. Although both fall within the prediction interval, the 95% CI shows that Alabama over the same time span has been able to do far better than LSU with the talent they are given, based on a model of all teams in FBS.
If you had asked me I could have saved you some time.
Posted on 1/3/13 at 5:21 pm to CptBengal
Posted on 1/3/13 at 5:24 pm to CptBengal
Wow you did all that work, and for what exactly? Bama has done better than us the past 5 years? SHOCKER
Posted on 1/3/13 at 5:24 pm to Topwater Trout
quote:
If you had asked me I could have saved you some time.
all those teams under the trend line and 95% CI, particularly in the 30-60 range of recruiting (i.e., the KState's, the Oregons, Oregon States, etc.)show how badly talent is misused by Miles and Co.
Posted on 1/3/13 at 5:26 pm to Tiger1242
quote:
Wow you did all that work, and for what exactly?
All those circles below the line represent teams that get better production out of their offense than you would expect based o na model of ALL FBS teams. the farther south of that shaded area, the better they do with less.
We are on the wrong side of that trend line.
Posted on 1/3/13 at 5:28 pm to CptBengal
Well that doesnt mean shite.
Recruiting rankings wise puts us behind Bama, Usc, Ut, FSU, Uf and rt ahead of Aub and UGA.
With teams like ND, Ohio Ste, tamu, clemson and others that have had at least one higher rated class than lsu over the last 5 years.
Yet we have an sec title and a bcscg birth in that time frame. Please explain how he does less with more?
15 frosh played from a class ranked rt inside the top 20 on every recruiting site. Atleast 18 programs had a better class than LSU last year. You dont remember the meltdown last feb?
Recruiting rankings wise puts us behind Bama, Usc, Ut, FSU, Uf and rt ahead of Aub and UGA.
With teams like ND, Ohio Ste, tamu, clemson and others that have had at least one higher rated class than lsu over the last 5 years.
Yet we have an sec title and a bcscg birth in that time frame. Please explain how he does less with more?
15 frosh played from a class ranked rt inside the top 20 on every recruiting site. Atleast 18 programs had a better class than LSU last year. You dont remember the meltdown last feb?
This post was edited on 1/3/13 at 5:29 pm
Posted on 1/3/13 at 5:29 pm to CptBengal
so alabama is competing for their 3rd BCS national championship in 4 years and LSU is sitting at home after choking against clemson.
got it
got it
Posted on 1/3/13 at 5:30 pm to CptBengal
quote:
all those teams under the trend line and 95% CI, particularly in the 30-60 range of recruiting (i.e., the KState's, the Oregons, Oregon States, etc.)show how badly talent is misused by Miles and Co.
I have been saying this for a few years. I appreciate the effort b/c I am too lazy to do it
Posted on 1/3/13 at 5:31 pm to TheDoc
but we are winning the moral national title and the in the hunt title thanks to how we had to over come self inflicted off the field issues and injuries. no changes needed since we won 10 games
Posted on 1/3/13 at 5:31 pm to dgnx6
quote:
Well that doesnt mean shite.
notice the spread in the top 25 below the trend line having a much higher density of points than above?
We are one of the few teams making that relationship more flat on the front end. I can color code the rest of the SEC if you want....but you wont like the results.
Posted on 1/3/13 at 5:32 pm to CptBengal
id like to see the rest of the sec and maybe some other normal top 25 teams 
Posted on 1/3/13 at 5:33 pm to CptBengal
quote:
he Oregons,
Oregon has had 1 ckass ranked out of the top 15 in the last 5 cycles. You dont know what you are talking about.
LSU is not the most talented team in the country
What makes you fools believe that? Based on rankings alone lsu isnt top 5. Also based on rankings that are biased as all get up, there are 10-15 equally as talented teams in the country each year with another 10 being rt there.
This post was edited on 1/3/13 at 5:37 pm
Posted on 1/3/13 at 5:36 pm to dgnx6
quote:
Atleast 18 programs had a better class than LSU last year.
The problem is that over the past several years, there have been 70-80 teams with better offenses.
Posted on 1/3/13 at 5:38 pm to dgnx6
well whose fault was it that so many schools had a better class than us last year? and that number of people with a better class is much lower than the number of people with a better offense.
its ok to admit les hasn't hired the best offensive people. all we need is a simple correction by les and all is well.
its ok to admit les hasn't hired the best offensive people. all we need is a simple correction by les and all is well.
Posted on 1/3/13 at 5:40 pm to lsufanz
quote:
The problem is that over the past several years, there have been 70-80 teams with better offenses.
That was true when saban was here as well. But there have been barely any teams better on defense under both.
I dont recall lsu ever being on offensive Juggernaut with or without miles.
In fact 2002 and 04 were worse than any offense miles has fielded. And were equally as talented.
Posted on 1/3/13 at 5:43 pm to heartbreakTiger
quote:
well whose fault was it that so many schools had a better class than us last year?
Whose fault is it that weve won 2 sec titles one bcs title and an appearnce in another. Whose fault is it that your expectations are this high? Whose fault is it fir every win, every loss, every player and coach at lsu rt now?
Posted on 1/3/13 at 5:46 pm to dgnx6
Why do you want to compare a team building a program vs one that is already elite?
Posted on 1/3/13 at 5:48 pm to heartbreakTiger
quote:
id like to see the rest of the sec and maybe some other normal top 25 teams
Florida = Blue
Arkansas = Silver
Auburn = Green
UGA = Black
Oregon = Yellow
I'll do more when I have time.
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