quote:
, I looked at the top five producers in 2006 and see how they did the last five seasons (2007-2012). Your argument was that more recent players don't have the same decline as players from the 80s or 90s. So I tested that theory against the most recently completed 5-season timeperiod.

my point is you cant just look at one season, see how they did for that one season, and them compare it to the next 5 seasons.

That's why I used their career averages when I posted the players I did.

And i didn't really cherry pick the players i brought up. I thought of players that mostly played in the AL at a corner position, benefited from the DH as they got older, and who were great sluggers. Honestly I stopped looking after these guys because I couldn't find anyone that slipped dramatically.

quote:
that was the article's thesis. It works for any season. The article used 1988 (and also used WAR, I changed it to OPS+ due to my dislike of WAR). You argued against that thesis saying recent times have changed that due to advances in health and nutrition. So I used 2006, the most recent year we could use and have a full five-year lookback.

And the theory held.

The theory held because it was cherry picked data that inclines a significant drop in most players.

The original data of 32/33 year old guys comes out with Sosa and Bret Boone, but in the middle of their ginormous steroid seasons(both career years)

if fishes out Lonnie Smith, who at age 33 had his best year of his career BY FAR.

it features Joe MOrgan a light hitting second baseman. i wont even get into him

And then George Brett....which in the paragraph they write about him, sneakily add in the last line "who won a battling title and made 4 all star games after age 32"

honestly that is not a good way to come up with examples.... Unless you are predetermined to predict failure for the Angels & Pujols/Hamilton.

quote:
The fact Emil Brown was in the top five Age 31 players in 2006 shows how quickly players age. We scrape the barrel pretty quickly

it doesn't mean anything, actually.

Wait, it does mean something actually. It tells me that in this season, there were no good players at age 31, or that there were some, and they were hurt.

Why? Because his monstorous 109OPS+ pales in comparison to all the guys I just posted in the same age season. AGain, just making this list of players a complete joke and irrelevant to the type of guys we are talking about.

The age cycle isn't always going to be in line with every player.

Which is why if you actually look at my examples, you could see that. MVP caliber players. Corner position players/DH's. Huge power hitters. ie, the same mold as Hamilton and Pujols.

Why limit it to one specific season, when you can look at any player's season at the same age in any given year? And if they have actually played through age 36....Well by-golly!!! Look at that!!

^^^ That makes way too much sense. You can count back or forward 5 years with any player that has played enough seasons. it doesnt have to be, oh... 2002... or 2005.... or the year Emil Brown was top 5 in OPS+ of all players who happened to be 31 that specific year

quote:
And guy like Abreu, Damon, and Nomar WERE great players. Are we arguing that the age 32 group there isn't full of great players. Todd Helton wasn't great?

Abreu and Damon were speed guys with decent power.

Nomar was a smaller guy(possibe roider as well), with injury problems. Yes, he broke down.

quote:
This rather supports another on of my pet theories: I hate when people knock players for being "mere compilers". It's really HARD to be a compiler. It's tough to continue to be good enough to hang on and keep a starting job and keep producing in your mid to late 30s. Only truly great players can usually do it.

This has gotten way off track if you are talking about compilers.

We are talking how Pujols and Hamilton will perform within the next 5 years compared to Sal Perez and Hosmer(who is still a prospect)

This post was edited on 12/19/12 at 2:06 pm

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Posted by Baloo

Formerly MDGeaux

Member since Sep 2003

49645 posts

Posted on 12/19/12 at 3:42 pm to Lester Earl

quote:
Which is why if you actually look at my examples, you could see that. MVP caliber players. Corner position players/DH's. Huge power hitters. ie, the same mold as Hamilton and Pujols.

Why limit it to one specific season, when you can look at any player's season at the same age in any given year? And if they have actually played through age 36....Well by-golly!!! Look at that!!

^^^ That makes way too much sense. You can count back or forward 5 years with any player that has played enough seasons. it doesnt have to be, oh... 2002... or 2005.... or the year Emil Brown was top 5 in OPS+ of all players who happened to be 31 that specific year

I literally have no idea what you are trying to say here. I've read your post three times and I can't make heads or tails of it.

You accuse me of cherry picking data when the article states a thesis, and I applied the criteria to find players and whoever met the criteria, I used. It's the total OPPOSITE of cherry picking.

You thought of players who you retroactively knew would extend their careers, throwing out all the players who were unable to extend their careers, and by using a criteria (not that it was even that, it's you just bringing up people) specifically designed to pick out players with longevity, you arrived at a conclusion that players with longevity were still producing. Shocking result. That's HOW they had longevity.

Looking backwards is worthless. We're talking about looking at a player at the time, and trying to make the most logical move. What is the better bet: the under 23 year old with decent numbers or the 31/32 year old currently in the top of the league?

In order to determine which is the better bet, I looked at both groups. Poz argues any year will work, but you argued against the "ancient past", so I used 2006. That's not cherry picking, that's testing the theory.

We could use another year, but really, I don't feel like doing it for every season. we've now done it for 2006 and 1988.

You can't think of corner OF's who were great sluggers who declined after great age 31-32 seasons. Hell, in this thread there's Gonzo, Belle, Buhner, Karros (if we're including Konerko, why not Karros?), Sexson, Dye, and Vlad. If we're including Frank Thomas, why not Ryan Howard? Or Justin Morneau? Keeping it MVP winner sluggers, how about Kevin Mitchell? Mo Vaughn? Ken Caminiti (kept up his rate, but couldn't stay healthy)? As a counter, Jason Giambi (his production didn't really decline dramatically until later)?

I mean, data tends to show what we want if we only look at the data which supports our thesis.

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