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re: Basketball Bet Thread 12/16
Posted on 12/16/12 at 4:47 pm to maclauer
Posted on 12/16/12 at 4:47 pm to maclauer
Good stuff maclauer
I am back in action tonight...
All three of the dogs tonight matchup favorably with their opponents, so I think that's where the value is at.
Sixers should win this game outright and they are getting +3.5 at home.
Kings matchup surprisingly well against the Nuggets, who have been a much better team at home.
Hornets matchup well and the Blazers are coming off that big Spurs win Thursday night, I think they will come out rusty and I really like the 1Q bet here as well.
As much as I do like the dogs, I don't usually like betting +4/4.5 points unless I feel really good about the dogs chances of winning outright. So I am rolling with the following
Hornets 1Q +1.5 (0.5 Unit)
Kings +8.5 Sixers +7 Teaser (1.5 Units)
Kings +8.5 Hornets +8.5 Teaser (0.5 Units)
Hornets +8.5 Sixers +7 Teaser (0.75 Units)
Sixers +3 (0.5 Units)
I am back in action tonight...
All three of the dogs tonight matchup favorably with their opponents, so I think that's where the value is at.
Sixers should win this game outright and they are getting +3.5 at home.
Kings matchup surprisingly well against the Nuggets, who have been a much better team at home.
Hornets matchup well and the Blazers are coming off that big Spurs win Thursday night, I think they will come out rusty and I really like the 1Q bet here as well.
As much as I do like the dogs, I don't usually like betting +4/4.5 points unless I feel really good about the dogs chances of winning outright. So I am rolling with the following
Hornets 1Q +1.5 (0.5 Unit)
Kings +8.5 Sixers +7 Teaser (1.5 Units)
Kings +8.5 Hornets +8.5 Teaser (0.5 Units)
Hornets +8.5 Sixers +7 Teaser (0.75 Units)
Sixers +3 (0.5 Units)
Posted on 12/16/12 at 5:17 pm to dgtiger3
Formula 2 is what I'm most optimistic about; it's similar to Formula 1 but features more variables and is more dependent on home/road splits. With the way I designed the formulas, both formulas agreeing or them disagreeing should strengthen the probability of Formula 2 being correct.
In 1Q of LAL/PHI, F1 3 starred on LAL while F2 leaned PHI. In 2Q of DEN/SAC, F1 2 starred DEN while F2 two starred SAC. I will be watching those results closely.
In 1Q of LAL/PHI, F1 3 starred on LAL while F2 leaned PHI. In 2Q of DEN/SAC, F1 2 starred DEN while F2 two starred SAC. I will be watching those results closely.
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