re: Official MLB Winter Meetings thread

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Yes, it is old in baseball terms. No, they have likely left their prime - players on average peak at age 27 (obviously not every player is the same). Sure, it's not a trend, but it's a real bad sign. Players don't gradually decline, they fall off cliffs. Signing a 31 year old to a big deal is asking to overpay them in their final years. You can normally get away with it in Year 1 or 2, but the back end kills you.

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In this particular case, I don't think Napoli and Vic are on the decline. Both keep in good shape.

Napoli doesn't have much wear and tear and his injury history is not as bad as you guys are making out. You are only remembering his time in Texas and those injuries. Moving to 1B extends his shelf life.

Small speed guys like Victorino have longer careers and will always have a place. He could hit 5 HR but steal 35 bases and play great defense and be worth his contract.

It may be a stretch to say they are in their prime, but the 27 year old breakout season thing is a myth in baseball. That may be when they peak physically, but it's not really telling as far as stats go.

I'm very confident these deals will work out. I'll eat crow if I'm not. Of course I'm a cubs fan and you guys are fans of AL East teams, so I'm sure you think it's crappy deals.