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Official Week 11 NFL Bet Thread

Posted on 11/15/12 at 9:23 am
Posted by Billy Mays
Member since Jan 2009
25391 posts
Posted on 11/15/12 at 9:23 am
Early leans:

Cleveland +7.5 @ Dallas
San Diego +7.5 @ Denver
Green Bay -3.5 @ Lions
Philadelphia +3.5 @ Washington

Also,

Colin Cowherd ?@ESPN_Colin

Have already selected blazin 5----wow---we may have lock of the year material.



Cowherd is 35-15 on the year FWIW
Posted by touchdown moses
eunice, LA
Member since Nov 2009
6024 posts
Posted on 11/15/12 at 9:45 am to
took the bills tonight at -2.5 -115
Posted by BeaumontBengal
Member since Feb 2005
2341 posts
Posted on 11/15/12 at 9:48 am to
Has he announced his selections?

You like Phi with Nick Foles?

I like:

NO -4.5 @ Oak
GB -3.5 @ Det
Bal -3.5 @ Pitt (no Big Ben)

All square bets, but I've been doing ok the last few weeks picking 3-4 square bets a week. I guess I kind of like Cle +9 (what's on 5dimes right now) too.

Posted by Billy Mays
Member since Jan 2009
25391 posts
Posted on 11/15/12 at 10:01 am to
quote:

You like Phi with Nick Foles?



Yes, especially with Washington's atrocious secondary. Foles is going to put up solid numbers.

The Eagles are in desperation mode and more talented. The public is all over Washington right now.
Posted by BeaumontBengal
Member since Feb 2005
2341 posts
Posted on 11/15/12 at 10:04 am to
I would imagine they are. My brother even said he may even take the Redskins in survivor when we were watching the Cowboys game last week. I'm thinking of staying away from that game.
Posted by Zipfer2022
Member since Nov 2011
3738 posts
Posted on 11/15/12 at 10:11 am to
quote:

Yes, especially with Washington's atrocious secondary. Foles is going to put up solid numbers.


You are nuts. A rookie QB behind that offensive line?!

Washington -3.5 and New Orleans -4.5 are the two best plays of the NFL season and they come in the same week
Posted by Billy Mays
Member since Jan 2009
25391 posts
Posted on 11/15/12 at 10:12 am to
Not surprised. The public hates Philadelphia right now but their talent is undeniable. Seems like a good move to take better than a FG against a mediocre divisional rival. Vick being out is not a detriment because he's been bad. Washington is 0-3 ATS as a favorite this year, so they aren't exactly proven frontrunners.

If it goes up to 4 or 4.5 I'd probably lay an extra unit.

Love GB @ Detroit tho. Detroit's defense is absolutely god awful. Clay Matthews being out will hurt but still like it.
Posted by Billy Mays
Member since Jan 2009
25391 posts
Posted on 11/15/12 at 10:16 am to
quote:


You are nuts. A rookie QB behind that offensive line?!



Vick sucked this year. If you think they are taking a big hit (or any at all) with Foles I think you are nuts. Sure the OL is terrible, but Shady will be fed early and often. They need him on track.

I'd imagine the line would've been Wash -1 if Vick was healthy. Is Vick worth 2.5 points? The public sees Foles as a downgrade - not convinced. We don't even know if Vick is 100% yet. Wash will have to prep for both.

ETA: I don't think Philly is that great I just think the line is in their favor on this one. More betting points than teams.
This post was edited on 11/15/12 at 10:23 am
Posted by TigerBait2008
Boulder,CO
Member since Jun 2008
33042 posts
Posted on 11/15/12 at 10:24 am to
Early Leans:


Green Bay
Tampa Bay
Denver
Posted by Zipfer2022
Member since Nov 2011
3738 posts
Posted on 11/15/12 at 10:33 am to
I'm not sure how you can even blame Vick for this bad season. He literally has had no time to throw all year and has gotten crushed. The Eagles haven't been able to run the ball either. Their offensive line is the worst in football along with the Cards. You really have confidence in Foles? Good luck, man. No way in hell Wash loses this game. Maclin is banged up as well. HFA will be huge, and I beleive there is a good chance for rain in this game. Going to be a miserable day for Philly.
This post was edited on 11/15/12 at 10:34 am
Posted by Billy Mays
Member since Jan 2009
25391 posts
Posted on 11/15/12 at 10:39 am to
I understand it looks bad for the Eagles.

I'm not really blaming Vick for Philly sucking, I just think he's having a terrible season and his lack of preparation and leadership has been a detriment. He's not exactly Peyton Manning as a team member.

I expect this to a FG game. I'm leaning Philly because Washington is not that good. Divisional games are usually close.

I'm not really looking @ Philly as a team because I think they are meh, moreso the 3.5 (or potentially 4 or 4.5).

It's about the number.
Posted by carmenjello
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2011
93 posts
Posted on 11/15/12 at 11:13 am to
locked in on tuesday morning Baltimore Ravens ML +160 2* (now -190)

Posted by Biff Tannen
Member since Sep 2012
2522 posts
Posted on 11/15/12 at 5:32 pm to
I'm playing U45 tonight

I'm also leaning bills tonight, dolphins have been playing poorly lately.. if they don't reestablish the run again they are in for a long night

the bills are a pretty good home team, despite what the #s say imo
Posted by HoLeInOnEr05
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
16848 posts
Posted on 11/15/12 at 5:45 pm to
I like it.
Posted by Billy Mays
Member since Jan 2009
25391 posts
Posted on 11/15/12 at 6:01 pm to
I'm teasing the Bills tonight.

The knee jerk reaction says stay away from Miami after getting pwned at home by Tennessee.

I'm a Bills fan, and I know better not to trust them, especially when the public likes them

If the number gets up over 3 in the next hour I might hop on the Dolphins.
Posted by bamafan425
Jackson's Hole
Member since Jan 2009
25607 posts
Posted on 11/15/12 at 6:11 pm to
I'm on UNDER 45.5.
Posted by BilJ
Member since Sep 2003
159145 posts
Posted on 11/15/12 at 7:11 pm to
Phins !
Posted by HoLeInOnEr05
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
16848 posts
Posted on 11/15/12 at 7:14 pm to
Under for 1.5*
Posted by BilJ
Member since Sep 2003
159145 posts
Posted on 11/15/12 at 7:15 pm to
Fine guys I'll go under
Posted by Zipfer2022
Member since Nov 2011
3738 posts
Posted on 11/15/12 at 7:17 pm to
quote:

Over 4.5 season trend! Visitor in #Dolphins games 50-23 against the spread (68% ATS)


Probably going to regret ever getting involved, but just have a gut feeling Miami wins.

Dolphins +2.5
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