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Posted on 11/1/12 at 5:15 pm to Chicken
butbutbutbutbut.. it's HOW that have played! 
This post was edited on 11/1/12 at 5:16 pm
Posted on 11/1/12 at 5:18 pm to Chicken
quote:
Obviously, Alabama is a good team, but based on what?
Eyeball test...They just look good.
They execute well on both sides of the ball and haven't played down to their inferior opponents.
This is something LSU cannot claim at the moment.
Posted on 11/1/12 at 6:26 pm to Chicken
quote:
Obviously, Alabama is a good team, but based on what?
The all important "eye test" relied upon by most talking heads.
Posted on 11/1/12 at 6:35 pm to Chicken
quote:
Obviously, Alabama is a good team, but based on what?
Two stats concern me and tell me they are good:
1) It's been about 1.5 seasons or so and Bama has given up more than 14 points ... once ... and that was 21 in garbage time to Georgia Southern.
2) The balanced offense ... roughly 200/200 rushing and passing.
Eye test for Bama in the 3-4 games I've watched have been pretty good, too.
Posted on 11/1/12 at 6:36 pm to Chicken
They pass, and run very well. Seldom make mistakes. Few turnovers, few penalties. That alone will win a lot of games vs. a team who at any time will cough up the football, can't punch it in from inside the 10 yd. line, and are one of the nations worse penalized teams.
Posted on 11/1/12 at 11:26 pm to Chicken
quote:
LSU and Bama have zero common opponents...
True. All we have are common opponents with each other's opponents.
Alabama opponents who had common opponents with LSU...
Arkansas: 2 common opponents with LSU
--Texas A&M: Arkie lost 58-10, LSU won 24-19
--Auburn: Arkie won 24-7, LSU won 12-10
Arkie lost 52-0 versus Alabama
Florida Atlantic: 1 common opponent with LSU
--North Texas: FAU lost 20-14, LSU won 41-14
FAU lost 40-7 versus Alabama
Ole Miss: 2 common opponents with LSU
--Texas A&M: Ole Miss lost 30-27, LSU won 24-19
--Auburn: Ole Miss won 41-20, LSU won 12-10
Ole Miss lost 33-14 versus Alabama
Missouri: 1 common opponent with LSU
--South Carolina: Mizzou lost 31-10, LSU won 23-21
Missouri lost 42-10 versus Alabama
Tennessee: 2 common opponents with LSU
--Florida: Tennessee lost 37-20, LSU lost 14-6
--South Carolina: Tennessee lost 38-35, LSU won 23-21
Tennessee lost 44-13 versus Alabama
Mississippi State: 1 common opponent with LSU
--Auburn: MSU won 28-10, LSU won 12-10
Mississippi State lost 38-7 versus Alabama
Against common opponents, Alabama opponents...
Won 3, Lost 6 (LSU won 8, lost 1)*<LSU played some common opponents more than once>
[Went 0-6 vs. Alabama]
Scored 23.2 points per game (LSU scored 19.7)
[Scored 8.5 ppg vs. Alabama]
Allowed 27.9 points per game (LSU allowed 15.3)
[Allowed 41.5 ppg vs. Alabama]
So, teams that went 3-6 against nine opponents that LSU went 8-1 against went 0-6 against Alabama; teams that scored 3.5 points per game more than LSU did against nine other common opponents scored 8.5 points per game against Alabama; teams that allowed 12.6 points per game more than LSU did against nine other common opponents allowed 41.5 points per game against Alabama.
LSU opponents who had common opponents with Alabama...
North Texas: 1 common opponent with Alabama
--Florida Atlantic: North Texas won 20-14, Alabama won 40-7
North Texas lost 41-14 versus LSU
Auburn: 3 common opponents with Alabama
--Mississippi State: Auburn lost 28-10, Alabama won 38-7
--Arkansas: Auburn lost 24-7, Alabama won 52-0
--Ole Miss: Auburn lost 41-20, Alabama won 33-14
Auburn lost 12-10 versus LSU
Florida: 1 common opponent with Alabama
--Tennessee: Florida won 37-20, Alabama won 44-13
Florida won 14-6 versus LSU
South Carolina: 2 common opponents with Alabama
--Missouri: USC won 31-10, Alabama won 42-10
--Tennessee: USC won 38-35, Alabama won 44-13
South Carolina lost 23-21 versus LSU
Texas A&M: 2 common opponents with Alabama
--Arkansas: A&M won 58-10, Alabama won 52-0
--Ole Miss: A&M won 30-27, Alabama won 33-14
Texas A&M lost 24-19 versus LSU
Against common opponents, LSU opponents...
Won 6, lost 3 (Alabama won 9, lost 0)*<Alabama played some common opponents more than once>
[Went 1-4 vs. LSU]
Scored 27.9 points per game (Alabama scored 42.0)
[Scored 15.6 ppg vs. LSU]
Allowed 23.2 points per game (Alabama allowed 8.7)
[Allowed 21.2 ppg vs. LSU]
So, teams that went 6-3 against teams that Alabama went 9-0 against went 1-4 against LSU; teams that scored 14.1 points per game fewer than Alabama did against nine other common opponents scored 15.6 points per game against LSU; teams that allowed 14.5 points per game more than Alabama did against nine other common opponents allowed 21.2 points per game against LSU.
Based on these comparisons, if they held true in the LSU-Alabama game...
-Teams that scored 3.5 ppg more than LSU against common opponents scored 8.5 ppg vs. Alabama = LSU would score 5.0 points vs. Alabama
-Teams that allowed 12.6 ppg more than LSU did against common opponents allowed 41.5 ppg vs. Alabama = LSU would allow 28.9 points vs. Alabama
Using Alabama opponents comparison to LSU, predicted final score: Alabama 29, LSU 5
-Teams that scored 14.1 ppg less than Alabama did against common opponents scored 15.6 ppg vs. LSU = Alabama would score 29.7 points against LSU
-Teams that allowed 14.5 ppg more than Alabama did against common opponents allowed 21.2 ppg vs. LSU = Alabama would allow 6.7 points against LSU
Using LSU opponents comparison to Alabama, predicted final score: Alabama 30, LSU 7
Naturally, you can't always rely on comparative performances against common opponents. However, the fact that both comparisons (LSU vs. Alabama opponents and Alabama vs. LSU opponents) involved nine games against common opponents and both came out with practically identical predictions for this game does not bode well for our Tigers.
Posted on 11/2/12 at 2:06 am to Chicken
quote:
Miss State is the only ranked team that Alabama has played...and Miss State has only beaten one team with a winning record (Middle Tenn State at 5-3).
Meanwhile, LSU has played three ranked teams (Florida, South Carolina and Texas A&M), with two of them being on the road...we went 2-1.
Really hard to compare these two teams on paper, due to the major differences in their respective schedules to date.
Obviously, Alabama is a good team, but based on what?
This. This plus that's why they "play the game".
Alabama passes the "eyeball test", has racked up every #1 vote from the "human" element of the BCS ranking determination (2/3 of the vote) but has failed to grab the #1 vote of the (high and low out) "computer" element. Go figger.
Nuts4LSU, I understand your common opponents' opponents discussion - opponents' opponents is a viable component of the "computer" element of the BCS ranking.
I do find it hard to understand why the "human" element (almost every sportscaster on ESPN, CBSSports, FoxSports, et. al.) has supremely failed to point out that Alabama has posted their stats while they have played a "somewhat" inferior schedule to date. They have said that LSU has played a better schedule to date - I will give them that.
Yet, in the next breath these media pundits fawn over just how really great the Alabama defense and offense truly is (using defense and offense stats, of course) compared to LSU (and in some cases compared to the rest of the teams in the nation)...
Stats are relative to sample size. Also relative to sample population. That's why UFC, boxing, other individual sports are based on weight. That's why college football, et.al., high school football, et. al. is based on divisions (usually based mainly on # of students at the institution). I passed 5 Statistics courses (15 hours) in college. Statistics, damn statistics, and lies !
Here is what I hope I will add to the thread. The undefeated, #1 ranked Alabama team has played 5 SEC teams with SEC record to date of 8 - 15 (22 - 18 overall). LSU, meanwhile, has played 4 SEC teams with SEC record to date of 14 - 11 (21 - 12 overall).
LSU has played the tougher SEC teams thus far. BTW, Alabama still has to face the 0 - 6 SEC record Auburn (1 - 7 overall) - the team that kills LSU's overall SEC win-loss record to date.
Does this mean that I think Alabama will probably lose the game Saturday night? No. I will still root for LSU. I have picked them to win.
Still (and on top of that,
) I repeat I find it hard to deal with the fact that no media scribes refer to these facts. Eyeball test. Ha Ha. If LSU wins (that's why they "play the game") almost every media pundit will be wrong, wrong, wrong. That's why I love LSU football.
Posted on 11/2/12 at 6:18 am to Chicken
I can agree on the schedule, but I just haven't seen Bama make many mistakes and they always capitalize on the other teams mistakes. I haven't seen them slack or get sloppy. LSU certainly can beat them, but my main worry is how disciplined and focused LSU can be the entire game.
Posted on 11/2/12 at 6:29 am to Chicken
Based on last year. and quality of wins this year. We still have a huge shot!
This post was edited on 11/2/12 at 6:30 am
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