re: Crackpot ASOIAF Theories SPOILERS

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We don't know the timeline of that letter. It could have very well been sent AFTER the chapter we saw of TWOW

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And from that preview chapter we know that Stannis is outnumbered, that a group of Northmen with him are traitors, and that the only allies he has between him and Frey/Manderly is full of green boys and old men.

That doesn't necessarily mean Stannis is dead or that he lost the upcoming battle because Manderly doesn't like Bolton and could very easily turn on the Freys and ally himself with Stannis. But the question then becomes does Stannis accept the fealty of "Sir to fat to sit a horse?"