re: BCS has achieved consensus on 4-team seeded playoff.

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Worst case scenario, it's 25% of one formula. If there were 10 formulas averaged, the resulting impact is nothing.

Now onto the basis, you're right. There are definitely cases of swings from one year to another.

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don't include it as part of your formula if it doesn't make sense

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In all of those cases you cited (which are only a few), the prior teams were always in strong conferences and were top 40 or so finishers.

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1) RE: the strong conferences thing? We don't really consider teams that are not from strong conferences (even if they are Boise, TCU, or Utah teams that have been good for a while)

2) If 8 win LSU and Auburn teams were ranked in the top 40 then it was inflation on the basis of conference reputation - not because either one of them deserved that. The 7 win OU and tOSU teams were just well below average teams if you judge them for what they did

Every year is different - teams will sometimes just put it all together and become special. In other cases they will fall apart when they were great the year before