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re: BCS has achieved consensus on 4-team seeded playoff.
Posted on 6/21/12 at 10:52 am to molsusports
Posted on 6/21/12 at 10:52 am to molsusports
Worst case scenario, it's 25% of one formula. If there were 10 formulas averaged, the resulting impact is nothing.
Now onto the basis, you're right. There are definitely cases of swings from one year to another. In all of those cases you cited (which are only a few), the prior teams were always in strong conferences and were top 40 or so finishers. Not exactly top 5 but still strong. This part of the formula prevents huge swings such as Tulane coming in at 12-0 or Wake Forest winning the ACC. You don't just have a sub-90's ranking program one year and turn into a national title condender the next.
Now onto the basis, you're right. There are definitely cases of swings from one year to another. In all of those cases you cited (which are only a few), the prior teams were always in strong conferences and were top 40 or so finishers. Not exactly top 5 but still strong. This part of the formula prevents huge swings such as Tulane coming in at 12-0 or Wake Forest winning the ACC. You don't just have a sub-90's ranking program one year and turn into a national title condender the next.
1
Posted on 6/21/12 at 10:59 am to TulaneUVA
quote:
Worst case scenario, it's 25% of one formula. If there were 10 formulas averaged, the resulting impact is nothing.
Now onto the basis, you're right. There are definitely cases of swings from one year to another.
don't include it as part of your formula if it doesn't make sense
quote:
In all of those cases you cited (which are only a few), the prior teams were always in strong conferences and were top 40 or so finishers.
1) RE: the strong conferences thing? We don't really consider teams that are not from strong conferences (even if they are Boise, TCU, or Utah teams that have been good for a while)
2) If 8 win LSU and Auburn teams were ranked in the top 40 then it was inflation on the basis of conference reputation - not because either one of them deserved that. The 7 win OU and tOSU teams were just well below average teams if you judge them for what they did
Every year is different - teams will sometimes just put it all together and become special. In other cases they will fall apart when they were great the year before
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