re: Potential trade kicked around in Chard Ford's chat today

quote:

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What do those hit like 20% of the time? I think the 10 pick in this draft would hit like 80% of the time

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Nothing statistical to back this up, but I think the percentage differences would be a lot closer, and I also think the #10 pick hitting would be closer to 20% than 80%.

After the top 5, it's a crapshoot IMO.

I know it'd probably be better to do a range, like maybe 8th through 12th, but I don't feel like doing that much research lol.

Here are the 10th overall picks going back to 1980:

LINK

Just off of a quick eye test, I'd say less than half were hits.