re: Greece - Do They Make it to June 17th?

quote:

---

Is the $400B pre-agreement (and writedowns) or post?

---

Post writedown.

quote:

---

I'm not sure what Kammenos wants, or why he is unable to strike a deal with New Democracy or PASOK, but it seems like a lost opportunity if they can't reach a deal. Those 3 parties won a majority of the seats in the last election, and all 3 oppose SYRIZA.

If SYRIZA is able to form a governing coalition next month without ANEL, I think that Kammenos is going to be kicking himself for not making a compromise deal with ND, PASOK, and Merkel.

---

There are two things I've learned so far in conversation about Greek default.

1. Anything you read in the news about Greek politics is more than likely, I don't want to go as far as saying wrong, inaccurate. The long standing parties are as corrupt as the Italians and new parties are yet to be determined (my guess is either corrupt or Santorum crazy). I agree, if that deal would've happened earlier then it would be a very different situation now. My personal guess is there is no possible way with the current stakes that a coalition government can be made.

2. At this point the negotiations between the core players in the EU (Germany and France) have diverged compared to earlier and it has created a completely different dynamic in the Euro. Before you could kind guess how negotiations would work, now, man I have no fricking idea. Will Merkel bend? Will Hollande and Monti ask for more? Will there be a run on Spanish banks after more news that Bankia needs another €4B (Its at €19B now, my math says it will be at €32B before its all said and done). If Spanish bank deposits start to fly then all bets are off and shite literally just got real.