Official BCS Discussion Thread -UPDATED

Updated Sat, Nov. 19 after OSU loss.

A rematch is more likely now with the OSU loss, but I still think If OU beats OSU, it vaults them above both Bama and Oregon. The Big 12 computer scores are too good and OU would be too easy a choice for the voters to put in the team that won their conference and hasn't played LSU yet. Ok State is a little worse off, but they aren't out of it. Like OU, they have a VERY strong computer score.

I think the Penn State loss last week (and maybe continued downward spiral) will make things very tough for Bama. It isn't impossible, but bama will be slipping the next few weeks while Oregon and OSU/OU will be gaining ground.

The more I think about it, I am pretty sure LSU can lose one game (ANY GAME) and still make the National Championship (maybe with a small caveat or two). This is even more true with OSU's loss (because that means 2 spots would be open for a 1-loss team). Here is how I see the 3 potential losses:

1. Ole Miss would be a bad, bad loss but it would be followed by wins against #6 Arkansas and #12 UGA. If we assume that the Big 12 champ still gets in, the only legitimate contenders outside of LSU would be Bama and Oregon. Voters would put LSU above both teams, but even if they didn't, LSU's huge computer advantage would easily kick LSU in.

2. An Arkansas loss would be uneasy because of the 3-way tie which is determined by the BCS. What LSU needs is for Arkansas to be the bottom of the 3 in the BCS standings. It is tough to tell what the voters would do, but I think the three are split pretty evenly, maybe with Bama getting a slight overall edge. But it appears Arkansas' computer score will clearly be the worst of three (and LSU the best). Arky might even be wedged-out of the computers by teams like Oregon. That should mean Arky gets left out, LSU goes to the SECCG by virtue of their win over Bama, and all is right in the world. If Arky beats LSU by double digits, some of this changes. Worse yet - if Bama loses Auburn it negates the need for a 3-way tie and Arky plays in the SECCG

I am a bit surprised Arky's computer score is so bad and Bama's is so good at this point. We need PENN STATE to WIN and we need South Carolina and A&M to lose. If things start to go badly in these types of games, Arky could creep up in the computers on bama.

3. A Georgia loss would mean that LSU doesn't win the SECCG which won't be popular. But LSU gets in by simple elimination. Who else gets in? definitely not Bama. Or Georgia and their 2 losses and terrible schedule. A 1-loss ACC champ (Clemson/Va Tech) could be looked at, but there is very little of substance there. Oregon would have the best shot of beating out LSU because they at least won their conference. But LSU would have a huge lead over them in the computers. If LSU is up by one full spot on Oregon in the computers, LSU will only 25% of voters to put them over Oregon in the polls (that seems like a sure thing). Better yet, I think LSU is MORE than one full spot of Oregon in the computers, so they may not need anybody to put them over Oregon.

So when the dust settles, I am pretty confident LSU makes the NC game even with a loss - ANY LOSS. I could be wrong and would like to hear other opinion but hopefully I won't read responses like "No way LSU goes..." or "I just think that " or "voters would never allow" without backing it up with actual logic and numbers.