The Enormous NBA Playoffs Preview/Predictions (very thorough, long read)

First off, this is very, very long, I know. It's like my own little Simmons column. Some of you won't read it, laugh, or give me a "didn't read" response (I expect that to be the first one), but for anyone interested in the NBA playoffs, I'd love to get a good discussion going.

We've all been watching games all year long, waiting for this time of year. I've been hearing a lot of interesting remarks from experts, great opinion articles, posters here on the MSB, and everywhere else on the upcoming playoffs. I've used everything to come up with my predictions, and I'd love to hear some in-depth predictions and opinions from everyone else on the MSB as well. I don't expect everyone to read this whole post(s), but instead to sort of pick and choose on some topics and voice your opinion on them.

I've been flip flopping on my first round predictions the last few days (and some of my overall predictions as well), not really being able to put my finger on some things in a few of the series. Overall, I still like Chicago to come out of the East. I don't buy that their lack of playoff experience will be their downfall. If that's all you've got against them at this point, then you don't have much. As for the West, I'm going with Oklahoma City. The Lakers will obviously be a major player as well. If they wouldn't have grabbed the 2 seed, things might have been different for them. But now, they'll have an easy 1st round series against New Orleans, and then a favorable match-up against Dallas in the semis, assuming higher seed holds. What's funny going back to OKC is that I had the Spurs taking them out in 5 games just yesterday morning. But with the match-up advantage they have at the point, the Perkins addition, and now the uncertainty with Ginobli going into the playoffs, I have changed my tune. So, my official Finals pick going into the playoffs is Bulls/Thunder, which is currently going off at 15-1 in Vegas, according to the site I'm looking at. Get your bets in while you can, because those odds won't be that good for long.

As for some other teams who are legitimate contenders, I'm of course a fan of Miami. Unlike past LeBron teams in Cleveland, I think this team is pretty well built for the playoffs. They'll have to get 44 or 45 minutes out of LeBron and Wade in every game, which is a little bit risky (especially for Wade), but if both of them can remain healthy they'll be in good shape. I like Bibby's clutch shot-making ability, Ilgauskas' bigger role, and even Bosh's increased involvement in the half-court offense. However, the Heat are at their best when they can get stops and get out and run, which will be advantageous against a team like Philadelphia. But that could be fool's gold for this team. To beat Boston and Chicago, it's not going to be a very up-tempo series. So running with Philadelphia in the 1st round won't really help prepare them strategically or mentally for a potential 2nd round series against Boston. So that's one minor concern for me.

As for Boston, they are hard to read as of now. Last year, I was pushing the Celtics hard at the beginning of the playoffs as the team that would come out of the East, despite their sluggish finish. However, although their finish to the season is sort of similar this year, the reasons are a lot different. The major surprise for me is not that the Perkins trade damaged the psyche of this team, but that it straight up killed it. And although they seem to be coming around a little bit lately, they still don't look like the same team mentally, let alone with their actual play on the court. It's not just Rondo (although he is the most noticeable one). From top to bottom, including Doc Rivers, they have all been a bit unmotivated to end the season. And they obviously still had a lot to play for (home-court over Miami/Los Angeles). In the end, I think they will find themselves emotionally for these playoffs. But even then, they just simply aren't as good of a team without Perkins. Green hasn't really brought that much on the court, and he's fit in even less inside the locker room. When it's all said and done, they traded a starting center for a 7th man. Even though Perkins wasn't that strong of an offensive player, he attracted defenders, he opened up driving lanes, and he made Garnett a more efficient offensive player. The Celtics are a jump shooting team now, especially with Rondo's recent struggles. They are going to have to find a way to get away from that in the playoffs. They will beat New York that way obviously, because they'll be able to get open jump shots as a result of terrible Knicks defense, but down the road against a good defensive team like Miami (gets out to shooters, contests shots, LeBron can guard Pierce), they're going to have to get production out of Rondo. That's the bottom line. He's going to have to get in the paint and consistently get Boston easy shots, and he should be able to do that against Bibby and Chalmers. But if Boston remains the jump shooting team that they have recently become, they won't be able to beat the Heat in the semis. And I don't think they will. The Cleveland and Orlando teams that Boston beat last year in their Finals run weren't nearly as strong as the Miami and Chicago teams they'll have to get through this year.

In the West, there are a bunch of very interesting potential later round series we could be looking at. Obviously everyone is looking at a possible Lakers/Spurs or Lakers/Thunder series, but a potential Lakers/Blazers series could be great as well, not that it's a sure thing Portland will even get to the 2nd round. I don't think the Blazers could take out LA, but I do think it could potentially be a really long series. One sleeper team that could make a deep run might be Denver, only if they're able to get by Oklahoma City in the 1st round.

I'll get into my 1st round picks now. There are a few great match-ups, and a few series that shouldn't last very long.


Eastern Conference

(1) Chicago Bulls vs. (8) Indiana Pacers
Season series: Bulls 3-1
Most intriguing match-up: Derrick Rose vs. Darren Collison
The point guard match-up in this series is pretty one-sided, even though Collison is a nice young player. It just so happens that Rose is the best point guard in the league, and the odds-on favorite to win the MVP. He should be able to penetrate rather easily on Collison, and create easy looks for himself and guys like Noah down low. As for Collison, he'll be able to hold his own from an offensive standpoint, but it'll be tough. It won't be just Rose who he'll be going up against, it'll be the entire Chicago defensive scheme.
Player to watch: Roy Hibbert
Obviously everyone will watch this series to see Rose. But for Indiana to have any chance at all, they'll need some production out of Hibbert down low against the Chicago bigs. In four games against the Bulls this season, he's gotten himself into foul trouble three times, and averaged a grand total of 6 points and 5.5 rebounds. Indiana is going to need something from him down low, or they are going to struggle mightily in this series with all of the great perimeter defenders Chicago will throw at Granger and George on the outside.
Prediction: Bulls in 5
I'll give Indiana a game, but they don't really have a shot to realistically win the series. Chicago is just too strong defensively, and the Pacers won't have any answer for Rose at the other end of the court. Danny Granger shot 37 percent going up against Luol Deng in their games this season, so that doesn't bode well for Indiana either.