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U.S. existing-home sales dip 2.2% in May

Posted on 6/22/10 at 9:08 am
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 6/22/10 at 9:08 am
LINK ][LINK]

Tried to find a funny gif of "rolling over" but came up empty. :fail:
Posted by tygerstripes
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
3391 posts
Posted on 6/22/10 at 9:37 am to


Does this work?
Posted by Tiger JJ
Member since Aug 2010
545 posts
Posted on 6/22/10 at 10:31 am to
quote:

U.S. existing-home sales dip 2.2% in May


You left out the most important word:

quote:

Purchases of U.S. Existing Homes Unexpectedly Fall


It's truly amazing how often those darned "expectations" about housing turn out to be wrong.

LINK
Posted by Martavius
Member since Nov 2005
16019 posts
Posted on 6/22/10 at 10:38 am to
Who besides Lawrence Yun didn't expect sales to dip after the government incentives expired?
Posted by Monkey
Colorado
Member since Jan 2007
4172 posts
Posted on 6/22/10 at 10:48 am to
Even mr yun said we will see a slowdown in activity after the credit! this was in support of an extension as I recall
Posted by Doc Fenton
New York, NY
Member since Feb 2007
52698 posts
Posted on 6/22/10 at 11:14 am to
And the median sales price jumped 4.2% in one month from April, while annualized sales volume stayed above the level for 2007. The $179.6k price is still below the $181.8k top from June 2009, but not by much.

Obviously, volume is going to drop off, but the hope is that prices won't drop by too much with them. For example, will the 20-city C-S/HPI drop by more than 5% from now until the August numbers released in October?
Posted by Tiger JJ
Member since Aug 2010
545 posts
Posted on 6/22/10 at 11:22 am to
quote:

And the median sales price jumped 4.2%


As reported by C/S?
Posted by Doc Fenton
New York, NY
Member since Feb 2007
52698 posts
Posted on 6/22/10 at 11:27 am to
No. As reported by NAR per the current news story. The C-S doesn't come out until next Tuesday, and the C-S for May doesn't come out until months later.

EDIT: The C-S reference was to an old hypothetical between me and kfizzle85 from a little while back.
This post was edited on 6/22/10 at 11:29 am
Posted by Tiger JJ
Member since Aug 2010
545 posts
Posted on 6/22/10 at 11:28 am to
So in other words, the median number you cite is basically worthless since it's so subject to sales-mix bias?
Posted by Doc Fenton
New York, NY
Member since Feb 2007
52698 posts
Posted on 6/22/10 at 11:30 am to
I wouldn't go that far, but no, it's not the best stat out there.
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 6/22/10 at 11:30 am to
So do you still think it will hold (less than 2.5% drop for the sake of the argument)? ETA: And what happens after August, eg what is the YoY %chg for May 10-May 11?
This post was edited on 6/22/10 at 11:31 am
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133674 posts
Posted on 6/22/10 at 11:32 am to
quote:

Who besides Lawrence Yun didn't expect sales to dip after the government incentives expired?
This.
Posted by Tiger JJ
Member since Aug 2010
545 posts
Posted on 6/22/10 at 11:32 am to
quote:

I wouldn't go that far, but no, it's not the best stat out there.


I mean, I think it's somewhat likely that the NAR median rising is actually a negative indicator because it means that the higher end inventory is finally starting to trade at distressed levels. If the only transactions across the entire country were at a price of $1 million, then the median would obviously skyrocket. Of course, it would be relevant if we then found out that every single one of those houses' last sale was for $2 million.
Posted by Doc Fenton
New York, NY
Member since Feb 2007
52698 posts
Posted on 6/22/10 at 11:33 am to
Maybe not. I don't know. I'm just saying that if it doesn't hold within 5% by August, the winter might get nasty. If it does hold, then I think things look better, and that it might be possible to still keep the economy relatively stable even as government stimulus begins to drop off.
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 6/22/10 at 11:35 am to
quote:

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting sales to rise about 6% to a 6.11 annual rate, theorizing that the expiration of the tax credit at the end of June would force some buyers to rush ahead.


According to the article. Dunno. On a completely different note, Bloomberg decided to redesign their website for the first time since the invention of the fricking internet, and it blew up my super-secret Bloomberg RSS feed.
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 6/22/10 at 11:36 am to
Word, no disagreement there really.
Posted by Tiger JJ
Member since Aug 2010
545 posts
Posted on 6/22/10 at 11:36 am to
quote:

According to the article. Dunno. On a completely different note, Bloomberg decided to redesign their website for the first time since the invention of the fricking internet, and it blew up my super-secret Bloomberg RSS feed.


Go to the very bottom and click on "old bloomberg page" or something like that. I cannot STAND the non-black new one.
Posted by Doc Fenton
New York, NY
Member since Feb 2007
52698 posts
Posted on 6/22/10 at 11:37 am to
quote:

And what happens after August, eg what is the YoY %chg for May 10-May 11?


I don't know. For C-S, probably not too good. I think 2011 might be a rough year.
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 6/22/10 at 11:38 am to
Thanks. Did you notice the site name: htt p://noir.bloomberg.com/intro3.html. Maybe Google can cobble together a feed out of the old page. I don't want to have to use Yahoo Finance or CNN Money or some shite.
This post was edited on 6/22/10 at 11:48 am
Posted by Tiger JJ
Member since Aug 2010
545 posts
Posted on 6/22/10 at 11:51 am to
I actually don't use RSS for Bloomberg. I have so many other subscriptions that I don't think it would be additive. They are also behind a lot of the time.
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