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Message

U.S. existing-home sales dip 2.2% in May
Posted on 6/22/10 at 9:08 am
Posted on 6/22/10 at 9:08 am
Posted on 6/22/10 at 10:38 am to Tiger JJ
Who besides Lawrence Yun didn't expect sales to dip after the government incentives expired?
Posted on 6/22/10 at 10:48 am to Martavius
Even mr yun said we will see a slowdown in activity after the credit! this was in support of an extension as I recall
Posted on 6/22/10 at 11:14 am to kfizzle85
And the median sales price jumped 4.2% in one month from April, while annualized sales volume stayed above the level for 2007. The $179.6k price is still below the $181.8k top from June 2009, but not by much.
Obviously, volume is going to drop off, but the hope is that prices won't drop by too much with them. For example, will the 20-city C-S/HPI drop by more than 5% from now until the August numbers released in October?
Obviously, volume is going to drop off, but the hope is that prices won't drop by too much with them. For example, will the 20-city C-S/HPI drop by more than 5% from now until the August numbers released in October?
Posted on 6/22/10 at 11:22 am to Doc Fenton
quote:
And the median sales price jumped 4.2%
As reported by C/S?
Posted on 6/22/10 at 11:27 am to Tiger JJ
No. As reported by NAR per the current news story. The C-S doesn't come out until next Tuesday, and the C-S for May doesn't come out until months later.
EDIT: The C-S reference was to an old hypothetical between me and kfizzle85 from a little while back.
EDIT: The C-S reference was to an old hypothetical between me and kfizzle85 from a little while back.
This post was edited on 6/22/10 at 11:29 am
Posted on 6/22/10 at 11:28 am to Doc Fenton
So in other words, the median number you cite is basically worthless since it's so subject to sales-mix bias?
Posted on 6/22/10 at 11:30 am to Tiger JJ
I wouldn't go that far, but no, it's not the best stat out there.
Posted on 6/22/10 at 11:30 am to Doc Fenton
So do you still think it will hold (less than 2.5% drop for the sake of the argument)? ETA: And what happens after August, eg what is the YoY %chg for May 10-May 11?
This post was edited on 6/22/10 at 11:31 am
Posted on 6/22/10 at 11:32 am to Martavius
quote:This.
Who besides Lawrence Yun didn't expect sales to dip after the government incentives expired?
Posted on 6/22/10 at 11:32 am to Doc Fenton
quote:
I wouldn't go that far, but no, it's not the best stat out there.
I mean, I think it's somewhat likely that the NAR median rising is actually a negative indicator because it means that the higher end inventory is finally starting to trade at distressed levels. If the only transactions across the entire country were at a price of $1 million, then the median would obviously skyrocket. Of course, it would be relevant if we then found out that every single one of those houses' last sale was for $2 million.
Posted on 6/22/10 at 11:33 am to kfizzle85
Maybe not. I don't know. I'm just saying that if it doesn't hold within 5% by August, the winter might get nasty. If it does hold, then I think things look better, and that it might be possible to still keep the economy relatively stable even as government stimulus begins to drop off.
Posted on 6/22/10 at 11:35 am to LSURussian
quote:
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting sales to rise about 6% to a 6.11 annual rate, theorizing that the expiration of the tax credit at the end of June would force some buyers to rush ahead.
According to the article. Dunno. On a completely different note, Bloomberg decided to redesign their website for the first time since the invention of the fricking internet, and it blew up my super-secret Bloomberg RSS feed.
Posted on 6/22/10 at 11:36 am to Doc Fenton
Word, no disagreement there really. 
Posted on 6/22/10 at 11:36 am to kfizzle85
quote:
According to the article. Dunno. On a completely different note, Bloomberg decided to redesign their website for the first time since the invention of the fricking internet, and it blew up my super-secret Bloomberg RSS feed.
Go to the very bottom and click on "old bloomberg page" or something like that. I cannot STAND the non-black new one.
Posted on 6/22/10 at 11:37 am to kfizzle85
quote:
And what happens after August, eg what is the YoY %chg for May 10-May 11?
I don't know. For C-S, probably not too good. I think 2011 might be a rough year.
Posted on 6/22/10 at 11:38 am to Tiger JJ
Thanks. Did you notice the site name: htt p://noir.bloomberg.com/intro3.html.
Maybe Google can cobble together a feed out of the old page. I don't want to have to use Yahoo Finance or CNN Money or some shite.
This post was edited on 6/22/10 at 11:48 am
Posted on 6/22/10 at 11:51 am to kfizzle85
I actually don't use RSS for Bloomberg. I have so many other subscriptions that I don't think it would be additive. They are also behind a lot of the time.
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