re: QB Play: NOT the Major Problem w/the Offense (statistical support)

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You went into this analysis with an agenda.

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No, I didn't. I went into the analysis trying to see if my preconceived notions about the troubles of the run game would be confirmed through their production on 3rd down. I wasn't sure how it would be proved one way or another.

If by an agenda you mean attempting to understand in some sense why we struggled, then sure, I had an agenda.

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You left out the sacks data which showed JJ got sacked at twice the rate of Flynn and was one of JJ's major problems.

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Twice the rate is a gross exaggeration. Flynn's rate per attempt: 1 sack/13.8 pass attempts. JJ: 1 sack/8.7 pass attempts.

I also factored sacks into the passing stats, so even with JJ's increased sacks he still performed better or marginally worse than Flynn...

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Also we had so many fewer plays in 2009. If you were really trying to figure out what was wrong with the offense instead of "proving" what you already thought maybe you should check the data on percentage of drives that were less than 3-5 plays.

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You, and many posters are completely missing the point of the thread. For some reason people think the concept was to prove JJ was a great QB. I said from the outset that he wasn't. The POINT was to prove that we had disastrous running game production. In fact, it was 20% less effective on 3rd down, which resulted in many of those 3-5 play drives you talked about, thus resulting in fewer plays.

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They are interesting numbers but they dont scratch the surface of all the factors.

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Of course it doesn't scratch the surface of all factors. I said as much...

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What was the average gain on plays where the qb checked into a different play. How did the opposing d-coordinator play 3rd and shorts. They respected Flynn's ability to pass, did they respect JJ. You cannot know these things. And stats can be manipulated.

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And you can't know them either... so it's impossible to quantify. Of course I can only work with the data at hand...

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QB A faces 3rd and 9 three times. He throws passes of 10,11, and 12 yards and completes the 11 yarder.

QB B faces 3rd and 9 three times. He throws passes of 6,7, and eight yards and completes all three.

QB A 33% completion percentage, 11 yards, 3.8 yards per attempt

QB B 100% completion percentage, 21 yards, 7 yards per attempt.

QB B wins the statistics in the box score but sucks as a QB.

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This is such a poor example I don't even know where to start.

For one, you show that you're missing the point of the thread.

Secondly, I gave an overview of both QBs performance in their statistical entirety, which still favored JJ. So it's not like I picked 3 remote stats JJ was better in while ignoring everything else...