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Interesting Philosophy
Posted on 10/19/09 at 7:03 pm
Posted on 10/19/09 at 7:03 pm
Can't say it would be as effective at the college/pro levels but interesting nonetheless...
No Kicking Allowed
No Kicking Allowed
Posted on 10/19/09 at 7:07 pm to pioneerbasketball
His theory behind the %'s of kicking vs not kicking in situations is true, most coaches just cant risk not getting it and losing a game.
Posted on 10/19/09 at 7:16 pm to pioneerbasketball
the onside kick thing is pretty interesting. if you think about it, teams, especially in high school, spend the least amount of time working on special teams. and its usually your less experianced players. if they can perfect a bunch of different kinds of onsides kick it would probably be +EV to go for it considering you're only giving up 15-20 yards if it fails.
Posted on 10/19/09 at 7:17 pm to death valley driver
quote:
considering you're only giving up 15-20 yards if it fails.
you are giving up more than 15/20 yards- they would be starting at your 40
Posted on 10/19/09 at 7:21 pm to TigerintheNO
Kick off is from the 40 in HS
Posted on 10/19/09 at 7:22 pm to TigerintheNO
quote:
you are giving up more than 15/20 yards- they would be starting at your 40
lets do some driveman math:
if you get a touchback you'd be starting at your 20. 40-20= what???
20 yards.
teams usually return it past the 20 yard line, especially in high school. so what do the numbers look like then??? even more in your favor rantard.
Posted on 10/19/09 at 7:32 pm to death valley driver
I’m a stats guy, but I think the studies which demonstrate a team should never kick are fundamentally flawed because they completely overlook the mental aspect of the game. A team that constantly goes for it will probably have a fourth down conversion percentage similar to most team’s third down rate. Let’s say somewhere between 35 and 40 percent. That’s a lot of times to voluntarily turn the ball over.
A team can normally cope with the occasional turnover due to a bunker mentality or whatever, but to constantly give away field position this way would eventually be demoralizing for a defense. I think a defense would start to play worse and give up points at higher rates than other teams relative to field position due to constantly being on the defensive.
Also, one of the ways onside kicks work is the element of surprise. A team that ALWAYS kicked an onside would see success rates similar to teams in obvious onside situations, which is quite low.
I do think teams should kick less and onside it more often. These are tactical weapons not being used, But to swing the pendulum all the other way is probably not the optimum solution. It is not “no kicking” it is “less kicking”.
A team can normally cope with the occasional turnover due to a bunker mentality or whatever, but to constantly give away field position this way would eventually be demoralizing for a defense. I think a defense would start to play worse and give up points at higher rates than other teams relative to field position due to constantly being on the defensive.
Also, one of the ways onside kicks work is the element of surprise. A team that ALWAYS kicked an onside would see success rates similar to teams in obvious onside situations, which is quite low.
I do think teams should kick less and onside it more often. These are tactical weapons not being used, But to swing the pendulum all the other way is probably not the optimum solution. It is not “no kicking” it is “less kicking”.
Posted on 10/19/09 at 7:45 pm to death valley driver
quote:
lets do some driveman math:
if you get a touchback you'd be starting at your 20. 40-20= what???
20 yards.
try some english, their and your
if you kickoff from your 30 and it goes ten yards, they will be starting at your 40, but if you get a touchback they are starting at their 20. That is a difference of 40 yards.
although as another poster pointed out in HS you kick from the 40 so the difference would be 30 yards with a touchback
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