re: BCS works __% of the time? 27%

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In most SoS formuals, every team is ranked and things could theorhetically come down to the 'difference' in playing a Washington or a Syracuse team. I honestly would like to see a team's opponents broken down into teirs: elite, good, average, poor, very poor. Whatever. Auburn may not have gotten screwed in 2004 if it was done this way.

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The old "SOS" formula was sort of like that. Its still a good eye ball measurement of a teams SOS, but is no longer used by BCS.

Some sort of SOS is used by all the computers. But their formulas are more complex and do exactly what you suggest. Beating team #75 is not worth much more than beating team #110 (or beating OPEN DATE for that matter).

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Football shows us time and again that just because Team A beat Team B and Team B beats Team C, it does not mean that Team A will beat Team C.

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The football computer polls used by the BCS aren't intended to be "predictive", they are intended to objectively compare resumes.