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"Beating a Team Twice"
Posted on 6/2/09 at 10:45 am
Posted on 6/2/09 at 10:45 am
Is there any truth to the rumor that its hard to beat a team twice? Football would probably be the sport here, but the same could be said of a "sweep" in baseball. It seems like people just point it out when the losing team comes back and wins, but isn't brought up when the winning team wins again.
Anyway, I think its hard like flipping heads twice in a row is hard (1/4 chance). But if you already flipped heads, it isn't harder to do it again. In fact, I think its easier to beat a team twice (or sweep them). You already proved you are better and/or match up well against that team.
Anyway, I think its hard like flipping heads twice in a row is hard (1/4 chance). But if you already flipped heads, it isn't harder to do it again. In fact, I think its easier to beat a team twice (or sweep them). You already proved you are better and/or match up well against that team.
8
Posted on 6/2/09 at 10:47 am to lsumatt
yea i hate that saying
Posted on 6/2/09 at 10:48 am to lsumatt
it's more of a myth than a rumor
the only thing that makes it harder is that the other team is more familiar with yours and therefore it's easier for them to prepare for the game
that and the "revenge factor" are the only things that make it more difficult
the only thing that makes it harder is that the other team is more familiar with yours and therefore it's easier for them to prepare for the game
that and the "revenge factor" are the only things that make it more difficult
Posted on 6/2/09 at 10:51 am to lsumatt
i think the law of odds is the only argument for the people that claim its tough to beat a team twice, and I agree to an extent, baseball is usually a very even game, especially in the postseason
Posted on 6/2/09 at 10:53 am to lsumatt
0-9. 
Posted on 6/2/09 at 10:53 am to gizmoflak
quote:
the only thing that makes it harder is that the other team is more familiar with yours and therefore it's easier for them to prepare for the game
Yeah, but the winning team is also more familiar with them.
quote:
the "revenge factor"
Don't know if that is a huge impact or not.
I would like to see some gambling stats if the line moves the other way the second time teams play (or the final game in a 3 game series). Then again, that might not mean anything if gamblers are just stupid and believe the "myth"
Posted on 6/2/09 at 10:55 am to lsumatt
eh, I'm just throwing out possible excuses
Posted on 6/2/09 at 10:55 am to josh336
quote:
i think the law of odds is the only argument
Not sure what you mean, but "the law of odds and large numbers" is not what most people think it is. Just because you flipped a coin heads 5 times in a row doesn't make it more likely the next flip will be tails.
Posted on 6/2/09 at 10:55 am to josh336
quote:
i think the law of odds is the only argument for the people that claim its tough to beat a team twice
Except that each game is an independent event, and beating someone twice is a conditional probability, so it's actually statistically easier to beat someone twice given that you've already beat them once (or beat them thrice given that you've already beat them twice).
Posted on 6/2/09 at 10:56 am to lsumatt
no, but if you say the coin flips 6 times, chances are one of them will land on tails
Posted on 6/2/09 at 10:58 am to josh336
quote:
no, but if you say the coin flips 6 times, chances are one of them will land on tails
Right, but here team A has already won two games (i.e. heads has ALREADY been flipped 5 times) and past events don't influence future ones (from a a probability standpoint).
But like Soph said, if anything team A has an advantage because they already proved they are "better"
Posted on 6/2/09 at 11:04 am to BuckeyeFan87
quote:
0-9.
CLASSIC!!!!!!!
Posted on 6/2/09 at 11:16 am to lsumatt
It's happened in the SECCG a few times:
1999: Alabama 40, Florida 39; Alabama 34, Florida 7
2000: Florida 38, Auburn 7; Florida 28, Auburn 6
2001: Tennessee 26, Louisiana State 18; Louisiana State 31, Tennessee 20
2003: Louisiana State 17, Georgia 10; Louisiana State 34, Georgia 13
The team who won the regular season matchup is 3-1 in SECCG's.
1999: Alabama 40, Florida 39; Alabama 34, Florida 7
2000: Florida 38, Auburn 7; Florida 28, Auburn 6
2001: Tennessee 26, Louisiana State 18; Louisiana State 31, Tennessee 20
2003: Louisiana State 17, Georgia 10; Louisiana State 34, Georgia 13
The team who won the regular season matchup is 3-1 in SECCG's.
Posted on 6/2/09 at 2:21 pm to lsumatt
In general, no, I think it's crap
If the two teams are essentially equals, then it can be tougher to beat a team twice. The winning team will be reluctant to change their game plan, while the losing team will and do it to counter the winning team's plan. If the two teams are even enough this could be the deciding factor in the rematch.
If the two teams are essentially equals, then it can be tougher to beat a team twice. The winning team will be reluctant to change their game plan, while the losing team will and do it to counter the winning team's plan. If the two teams are even enough this could be the deciding factor in the rematch.
Posted on 6/2/09 at 2:40 pm to lsumatt
quote:
"Beating a Team Twice"
I've never understood this wrt CFB.
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