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Started By
Message

For those doubters out there...
Posted on 4/28/09 at 8:03 am
Posted on 4/28/09 at 8:03 am
Another poster here recently posted that he doesn't think my advice on this board is worth listening to.
So, I thought it was time to review some history with the class:
1) On February 14, I started a thread that the Dow Jones was likely to fall below 7,000 (it was around 7,850 at the time) but it by the end of March everyone should be "all in." I got derision for posting it with one poster even responding that the stock market might not even exist by the end of March. The market bottomed at 6,440 on March 9. It has since rallied almost 25%.
Go all in
2) From early on I said one of the contributing factors for the financial crisis was the intractable mark-to-market procedures being forced on banks. I said something would have to be done about the rules. After several months of being told how wrong I was, FASB 157 rules were modified on April 1 to allow the bean counters more flexibility in applying M2M. Some here still say the changes are no big deal. The markets differ with that opinion.
3) During the hysteria over the AIG bonus payments (which I hated) when almost every one on this board was screaming for the punitive 90% specific tax on those executives receiving those bonuses, I started a thread about how it was wrong to target specific people with the tax code. (I searched for that thread but couldn't find it.) I also predicted it would not pass the senate. I caught all kinds of hell on here about it.
We all know now the issue was dropped once people calmed down.
There's more, but I'd like to hear some of your successful predictions. Hmmmmmm??
Au revoir, mon amie....
So, I thought it was time to review some history with the class:
1) On February 14, I started a thread that the Dow Jones was likely to fall below 7,000 (it was around 7,850 at the time) but it by the end of March everyone should be "all in." I got derision for posting it with one poster even responding that the stock market might not even exist by the end of March. The market bottomed at 6,440 on March 9. It has since rallied almost 25%.
Go all in
2) From early on I said one of the contributing factors for the financial crisis was the intractable mark-to-market procedures being forced on banks. I said something would have to be done about the rules. After several months of being told how wrong I was, FASB 157 rules were modified on April 1 to allow the bean counters more flexibility in applying M2M. Some here still say the changes are no big deal. The markets differ with that opinion.
3) During the hysteria over the AIG bonus payments (which I hated) when almost every one on this board was screaming for the punitive 90% specific tax on those executives receiving those bonuses, I started a thread about how it was wrong to target specific people with the tax code. (I searched for that thread but couldn't find it.) I also predicted it would not pass the senate. I caught all kinds of hell on here about it.
We all know now the issue was dropped once people calmed down.
There's more, but I'd like to hear some of your successful predictions. Hmmmmmm??
Au revoir, mon amie....
Posted on 4/28/09 at 8:12 am to LSURussian
quote:
There's more, but I'd like to hear some of your successful predictions. Hmmmmmm??
I told my wife that our house we bought 2 years ago would lose at least 10% of its value and it has.
I'm in NC by the way.
Posted on 4/28/09 at 8:14 am to DP40
I was sorta' hoping to hear posters' predictions they made on this board.
Posted on 4/28/09 at 8:31 am to LSURussian
quote:
LSURussian
My prediction is that you will continue to be a douche through 2009.
Posted on 4/28/09 at 8:35 am to HeadyMurphey
+1

This post was edited on 4/28/09 at 8:39 am
Posted on 4/28/09 at 8:50 am to LSURussian
quote:
I was sorta' hoping to hear posters' predictions they made on this board.
I know, but who is going to play? I thought I'd throw something out for fun.......but it's true.
Posted on 4/28/09 at 8:51 am to DP40
quote:
I know, but who is going to play?
You're right. I don't recall anyone else making an accurate prediction on here.....yet.
Posted on 4/28/09 at 8:55 am to LSURussian
Most of my glorious predictions happenned pre money board (isnt that convenient). But since posting, emphasized in early 08 this was not going to be pretty (when the talking heads still had not come around)
LINK
4/1/08 call the really would not hold
LINK
Pointing out the citi throwing out the kitchen sink in 4/08 was a joke (plenty more to come)
LINK
Final exhibit.... how Buffets call in may 08 of a great time to invest was a joke. Some of my reasoning ended up weakening, but the answer proved true.
LINK
Ofcourse I have been wrong plenty of times (particularly in the fall of 95 when I was drunk with a portly gal unaffectionately nicknamed 'Subway', but I digress)
LINK
4/1/08 call the really would not hold
LINK
Pointing out the citi throwing out the kitchen sink in 4/08 was a joke (plenty more to come)
LINK
Final exhibit.... how Buffets call in may 08 of a great time to invest was a joke. Some of my reasoning ended up weakening, but the answer proved true.
LINK
Ofcourse I have been wrong plenty of times (particularly in the fall of 95 when I was drunk with a portly gal unaffectionately nicknamed 'Subway', but I digress)
Posted on 4/28/09 at 9:10 am to LSURussian
quote:
2) From early on I said one of the contributing factors for the financial crisis was the intractable mark-to-market procedures being forced on banks. I said something would have to be done about the rules. After several months of being told how wrong I was, FASB 157 rules were modified on April 1 to allow the bean counters more flexibility in applying M2M. Some here still say the changes are no big deal. The markets differ with that opinion.
BS. I'd love to hear you expound upon your excellence here by quantifying this.
pong.
Posted on 4/28/09 at 9:14 am to clamdip
I predicted that I wouldn't give a crap about the stock market and guess what, I still don't give a crap. My prediction came true as well 
Posted on 4/28/09 at 9:27 am to LSURussian
quote:
3) During the hysteria over the AIG bonus payments (which I hated) when almost every one on this board was screaming for the punitive 90% specific tax on those executives receiving those bonuses, I started a thread about how it was wrong to target specific people with the tax code. (I searched for that thread but couldn't find it.) I also predicted it would not pass the senate. I caught all kinds of hell on here about it.
I must have missed this discussion as I don't recall any regular posters on this board being in favor of punitive taxing of the bonuses.
Posted on 4/28/09 at 11:42 am to Martavius
quote:Here ya' go, Marty:
I don't recall any regular posters on this board being in favor of punitive taxing of the bonuses.
Why AIG bonuses should be taxed at 90%
Here was my response to it: Why AIG bonuses should NOT be taxed at 90%
I forgot it was on the Poli Board but the idea is the same....
Posted on 4/28/09 at 11:47 am to LSURussian
quote:
Another poster here recently posted that he doesn't think my advice on this board is worth listening to.
You make too much sense and your glass is half full way to often to be taken seriously around here.
Your sig qoute just proves my point.
Posted on 4/28/09 at 11:51 am to amsterdam
quote:Usually I just tend to think the glass is too big.....
your glass is half full way
Posted on 4/28/09 at 11:52 am to LSURussian
Yeah, I see like 2 people in favor of the bonus tax. You claimed nearly everyone was. One person making 20 posts in the same thread in favor of it doesn't make it nearly everyone.
But I don't want to get in the way of you patting yourself on the back either. Just don't dislocate your shoulder. It could delay your next "look at me I'm right" theread.
But I don't want to get in the way of you patting yourself on the back either. Just don't dislocate your shoulder. It could delay your next "look at me I'm right" theread.
Posted on 4/28/09 at 12:03 pm to Martavius
quote:In that thread. There were other posts on this board which supported the tax. You're welcome to search for them if you'd like to do so. But I understand your point: my use of "almost everyone" was a stretch.
I see like 2 people in favor of the bonus tax.
quote:No worries there. I do special exercises just be keep limber for that purpose. Thanks for your concern.
I don't want to get in the way of you patting yourself on the back either. Just don't dislocate your shoulder.
quote:theread???
It could delay your next "look at me I'm right" theread.

Posted on 4/28/09 at 12:07 pm to LSURussian
quote:
theread???
Nothing says "I'm awesome" like a typo slam.
Posted on 4/28/09 at 12:46 pm to LSURussian
I recommended RUTH's when it was at a $1 ... i mostly only post about my F ups so people will tell me where I screwed up !
that's about it... i will make one now though...i believe at sometime in 2009, we will at least retest the lows...
that's about it... i will make one now though...i believe at sometime in 2009, we will at least retest the lows...
Posted on 4/28/09 at 12:52 pm to Zilla
quote:I think the lows are past us with the caveat that if there is a serious terrorist attack on U.S. soil, all bets are off. And I don't discount the possibility of that happening at all.
i believe at sometime in 2009, we will at least retest the lows...
Posted on 4/28/09 at 3:09 pm to LSURussian
quote:
I think the lows are past us with the caveat that if there is a serious terrorist attack on U.S. soil, all bets are off. And I don't discount the possibility of that happening at all
Don't Jinx me. I just got a new job and I don't want the set back of a deeper market correction.
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