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For those doubters out there...

Posted on 4/28/09 at 8:03 am
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133596 posts
Posted on 4/28/09 at 8:03 am
Another poster here recently posted that he doesn't think my advice on this board is worth listening to.

So, I thought it was time to review some history with the class:

1) On February 14, I started a thread that the Dow Jones was likely to fall below 7,000 (it was around 7,850 at the time) but it by the end of March everyone should be "all in." I got derision for posting it with one poster even responding that the stock market might not even exist by the end of March. The market bottomed at 6,440 on March 9. It has since rallied almost 25%.

Go all in

2) From early on I said one of the contributing factors for the financial crisis was the intractable mark-to-market procedures being forced on banks. I said something would have to be done about the rules. After several months of being told how wrong I was, FASB 157 rules were modified on April 1 to allow the bean counters more flexibility in applying M2M. Some here still say the changes are no big deal. The markets differ with that opinion.

3) During the hysteria over the AIG bonus payments (which I hated) when almost every one on this board was screaming for the punitive 90% specific tax on those executives receiving those bonuses, I started a thread about how it was wrong to target specific people with the tax code. (I searched for that thread but couldn't find it.) I also predicted it would not pass the senate. I caught all kinds of hell on here about it.
We all know now the issue was dropped once people calmed down.

There's more, but I'd like to hear some of your successful predictions. Hmmmmmm??

Au revoir, mon amie....
Posted by DP40
Swamps and creeks
Member since Nov 2008
9907 posts
Posted on 4/28/09 at 8:12 am to
quote:

There's more, but I'd like to hear some of your successful predictions. Hmmmmmm??


I told my wife that our house we bought 2 years ago would lose at least 10% of its value and it has.

I'm in NC by the way.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133596 posts
Posted on 4/28/09 at 8:14 am to
I was sorta' hoping to hear posters' predictions they made on this board.

Posted by HeadyMurphey
Los Santos
Member since Jan 2008
17279 posts
Posted on 4/28/09 at 8:31 am to
quote:

LSURussian


My prediction is that you will continue to be a douche through 2009.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133596 posts
Posted on 4/28/09 at 8:35 am to
+1

This post was edited on 4/28/09 at 8:39 am
Posted by DP40
Swamps and creeks
Member since Nov 2008
9907 posts
Posted on 4/28/09 at 8:50 am to
quote:

I was sorta' hoping to hear posters' predictions they made on this board.


I know, but who is going to play? I thought I'd throw something out for fun.......but it's true.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133596 posts
Posted on 4/28/09 at 8:51 am to
quote:

I know, but who is going to play?

You're right. I don't recall anyone else making an accurate prediction on here.....yet.
Posted by igoringa
South Mississippi
Member since Jun 2007
12264 posts
Posted on 4/28/09 at 8:55 am to
Most of my glorious predictions happenned pre money board (isnt that convenient). But since posting, emphasized in early 08 this was not going to be pretty (when the talking heads still had not come around)

LINK

4/1/08 call the really would not hold

LINK


Pointing out the citi throwing out the kitchen sink in 4/08 was a joke (plenty more to come)

LINK

Final exhibit.... how Buffets call in may 08 of a great time to invest was a joke. Some of my reasoning ended up weakening, but the answer proved true.

LINK

Ofcourse I have been wrong plenty of times (particularly in the fall of 95 when I was drunk with a portly gal unaffectionately nicknamed 'Subway', but I digress)
Posted by clamdip
Rocky Mountain High
Member since Sep 2004
20585 posts
Posted on 4/28/09 at 9:10 am to
quote:

2) From early on I said one of the contributing factors for the financial crisis was the intractable mark-to-market procedures being forced on banks. I said something would have to be done about the rules. After several months of being told how wrong I was, FASB 157 rules were modified on April 1 to allow the bean counters more flexibility in applying M2M. Some here still say the changes are no big deal. The markets differ with that opinion.



BS. I'd love to hear you expound upon your excellence here by quantifying this.

pong.
Posted by guttata
prairieville
Member since Feb 2006
22629 posts
Posted on 4/28/09 at 9:14 am to
I predicted that I wouldn't give a crap about the stock market and guess what, I still don't give a crap. My prediction came true as well
Posted by Martavius
Member since Nov 2005
16019 posts
Posted on 4/28/09 at 9:27 am to
quote:

3) During the hysteria over the AIG bonus payments (which I hated) when almost every one on this board was screaming for the punitive 90% specific tax on those executives receiving those bonuses, I started a thread about how it was wrong to target specific people with the tax code. (I searched for that thread but couldn't find it.) I also predicted it would not pass the senate. I caught all kinds of hell on here about it.

I must have missed this discussion as I don't recall any regular posters on this board being in favor of punitive taxing of the bonuses.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133596 posts
Posted on 4/28/09 at 11:42 am to
quote:

I don't recall any regular posters on this board being in favor of punitive taxing of the bonuses.
Here ya' go, Marty:
Why AIG bonuses should be taxed at 90%

Here was my response to it: Why AIG bonuses should NOT be taxed at 90%

I forgot it was on the Poli Board but the idea is the same....
Posted by amsterdam
In His Word
Member since Jul 2008
1036 posts
Posted on 4/28/09 at 11:47 am to
quote:

Another poster here recently posted that he doesn't think my advice on this board is worth listening to.


You make too much sense and your glass is half full way to often to be taken seriously around here.

Your sig qoute just proves my point.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133596 posts
Posted on 4/28/09 at 11:51 am to
quote:

your glass is half full way
Usually I just tend to think the glass is too big.....
Posted by Martavius
Member since Nov 2005
16019 posts
Posted on 4/28/09 at 11:52 am to
Yeah, I see like 2 people in favor of the bonus tax. You claimed nearly everyone was. One person making 20 posts in the same thread in favor of it doesn't make it nearly everyone.

But I don't want to get in the way of you patting yourself on the back either. Just don't dislocate your shoulder. It could delay your next "look at me I'm right" theread.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133596 posts
Posted on 4/28/09 at 12:03 pm to
quote:

I see like 2 people in favor of the bonus tax.
In that thread. There were other posts on this board which supported the tax. You're welcome to search for them if you'd like to do so. But I understand your point: my use of "almost everyone" was a stretch.

quote:

I don't want to get in the way of you patting yourself on the back either. Just don't dislocate your shoulder.
No worries there. I do special exercises just be keep limber for that purpose. Thanks for your concern.

quote:

It could delay your next "look at me I'm right" theread.
theread???
Posted by Martavius
Member since Nov 2005
16019 posts
Posted on 4/28/09 at 12:07 pm to
quote:

theread???

Nothing says "I'm awesome" like a typo slam.
Posted by Zilla
Member since Jul 2005
10643 posts
Posted on 4/28/09 at 12:46 pm to
I recommended RUTH's when it was at a $1 ... i mostly only post about my F ups so people will tell me where I screwed up !

that's about it... i will make one now though...i believe at sometime in 2009, we will at least retest the lows...
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133596 posts
Posted on 4/28/09 at 12:52 pm to
quote:

i believe at sometime in 2009, we will at least retest the lows...
I think the lows are past us with the caveat that if there is a serious terrorist attack on U.S. soil, all bets are off. And I don't discount the possibility of that happening at all.
Posted by kingrex08
Dallas
Member since Jan 2009
603 posts
Posted on 4/28/09 at 3:09 pm to
quote:

I think the lows are past us with the caveat that if there is a serious terrorist attack on U.S. soil, all bets are off. And I don't discount the possibility of that happening at all


Don't Jinx me. I just got a new job and I don't want the set back of a deeper market correction.
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