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Interesting new study says “breakeven” job growth is now nearly 0.
Posted on 4/12/26 at 9:01 pm
Posted on 4/12/26 at 9:01 pm
Aka, the amount of jobs needed to keep pace with monthly growth in labor force is nearly 0.
A few factors as to why:
1) continuing mass retirement of baby boomers outpacing new labor force entry
2) illegal immigration, which for years was growing labor force entry by ~100k per month, is now at nearly zero.
A few factors as to why:
1) continuing mass retirement of baby boomers outpacing new labor force entry
2) illegal immigration, which for years was growing labor force entry by ~100k per month, is now at nearly zero.
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If tweet fails to load, click here. This post was edited on 4/12/26 at 9:15 pm
2
Posted on 4/12/26 at 10:14 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Heard Jim Bianco talking about this on Macro Voices 4-5 weeks ago. Worth a listen.
eta appears he's been talking about it since September, but the one I was talking about was about a month ago:
LINK
MacroVoices #496, “The Post Covid Economy”: “if we have no population growth, that’s enough jobs… that’s all we really need to be creating.”
MacroVoices #510: discussion of the “breakeven rate” for labor supply and how the economy may need far fewer jobs than people assume.
MacroVoices #523 / recent transcript listings: the same theme appears again, with language like “we don’t need that many jobs.”
eta appears he's been talking about it since September, but the one I was talking about was about a month ago:
LINK
MacroVoices #496, “The Post Covid Economy”: “if we have no population growth, that’s enough jobs… that’s all we really need to be creating.”
MacroVoices #510: discussion of the “breakeven rate” for labor supply and how the economy may need far fewer jobs than people assume.
MacroVoices #523 / recent transcript listings: the same theme appears again, with language like “we don’t need that many jobs.”
This post was edited on 4/12/26 at 10:19 pm
Posted on 4/12/26 at 10:56 pm to UpstairsComputer
At first glance the comments about not needing that many jobs seem like sleight of hand statistics. Especially because the labor participation rate is way lower than it should be among groups like men between 18 and 40.
Posted on 4/12/26 at 11:16 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Jobs numbers that don't allocate for the thousands of H1Bs are bullshite. Almost 4k in DFW by JPMC alone in the last five years, and that doesn't include Cognizant, Infosys, TCS, USAA, Amazon, etc.
Posted on 4/13/26 at 6:29 pm to molsusports
The point is that if the labor force growth slows to a crawl, it reduces the need for high monthly jobs gains
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