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Started By
Message
Vegas is GOOD
Posted on 1/8/26 at 10:32 pm
Posted on 1/8/26 at 10:32 pm
Or is this just recency bias? It seems like in big games Vegas always has a bead on it
4
Posted on 1/8/26 at 10:33 pm to DaleGribblesMower
They nailed that Indiana Bama spread.
Posted on 1/8/26 at 10:36 pm to slackster
Touché
Posted on 1/8/26 at 10:36 pm to DaleGribblesMower
It’s not really about setting the point spread as an expected outcome. It’s much more about setting the spread where half the people will bet one way and half will bet the other way
This post was edited on 1/8/26 at 10:37 pm
Posted on 1/8/26 at 10:39 pm to LSUTANGERINE
quote:
It’s not really about setting the point spread as an expected outcome. It’s much more about setting the spread where half the people will bet one way and half will bet the other way
At least one person here understands.
Posted on 1/8/26 at 10:42 pm to Vegas Eddie
But they do love when one side is the heavy favorite and loses/doesn’t cover.
Posted on 1/9/26 at 12:09 am to LSUTANGERINE
Wrong, there are frequently bets where almost all the money is on one side. There is a massive bias from the public to bet player prop overs for instance.
Posted on 1/9/26 at 11:29 am to Vegas Eddie
quote:I can never tell in these threads if when the poster says "Vegas" they know what they're talking about. I think usually they do not.
At least one person here understands.
Another bit of false conventional wisdom with bookies is "loser pays the vig".
Posted on 1/9/26 at 11:31 am to DaleGribblesMower
Lebaron philons over under was 18.5 points against Vanderbilt. He got 14 in the 1st half. He got 4 in the first 5 mins of the 2nd half. and then he left the game only to not return.
But hey, vegas just knows their stuff that well! They even knew he would leave halfway through the game!
But hey, vegas just knows their stuff that well! They even knew he would leave halfway through the game!
This post was edited on 1/9/26 at 11:32 am
Posted on 1/9/26 at 11:32 am to Big Scrub TX
You don't think Vegas knows what it's talking about? 
perhaps the billions of dollars made since forever tells a different story.
perhaps the billions of dollars made since forever tells a different story.
Posted on 1/9/26 at 12:16 pm to LSUTANGERINE
I used to think this was true, however they also set lines to entice the public to be heavy on the wrong side when the opportunity presents itself
Posted on 1/9/26 at 12:47 pm to JW
quote:I think "Vegas" when properly conceived is just shorthand for "accumulated betting public".
You don't think Vegas knows what it's talking about?
quote:Yes, the house makes a spread. Not sure what's hard to understand about that.
perhaps the billions of dollars made since forever tells a different story.
Posted on 1/9/26 at 1:58 pm to TheWalrus
quote:
Wrong, there are frequently bets where almost all the money is on one side.
Don’t they then adjust the line to entice more money on the other side?
Posted on 1/9/26 at 2:22 pm to LSUTANGERINE
it doesn't always happen. I think I heard a stat this year that NFL favorites where public money was over 65% on one side were only hitting around 30%
Posted on 1/9/26 at 4:21 pm to DaleGribblesMower
If they get very close to 50/50 action then they nailed it. If the public bets 70% of one side of the line and the other side wins, that's just the public being dumb asses.
Posted on 1/9/26 at 6:15 pm to WonPercent
quote:
If they get very close to 50/50 action then they nailed it.
That is the ideal situation for a bookie, to get equal action on both teams and they make bank on the "juice/vigorish" the bettors pay to make the bet.
quote:
If the public bets 70% of one side of the line and the other side wins, that's just the public being dumb asses.
If a bookie has his bets that lopsided, he should lay some of it off to other bookies to get it closer to equal for both teams. Holding 70% of the bets on one team is them gambling those bettors will lose, but if they win, he's upside down for that game.
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