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Started By
Message
MRLN - Merlin Labs (Autonomous Aviation Software)
Posted on 10/23/25 at 9:10 pm
Posted on 10/23/25 at 9:10 pm
3/23/26 - NOW trading as MRLN
I want to officially put this stock on your radar though I’ve mentioned it a time or two in passing.
This is an AI aviation company that’s going public via SPAC in early 2026.
The business is pretty easy to understand. They want to fly planes autonomously. It’s a software company. They don’t own planes.
Partnership model: Merlin Labs collaborates with aviation companies like Dynamic Aviation to install its technology on existing aircraft fleets.
Focus on technology: The company's focus is on developing and selling the autonomous flight system itself.
No intention to be an airline: Merlin Labs has stated it has no intention of becoming an airline or operating planes itself, aiming instead to provide its services to other operators.
The stock ripped higher today closing at $12.75 on NEWS of a collaboration with the USAF. Merlin already has several govt contracts under its belt.
I jumped back in today with 200 shares, but it’s very early still. Less than 500 watchers on StockTwits is comical.
Unfortunately I sold my 1,860 rights/warrants yesterday
Merlin Labs
I want to officially put this stock on your radar though I’ve mentioned it a time or two in passing.
This is an AI aviation company that’s going public via SPAC in early 2026.
The business is pretty easy to understand. They want to fly planes autonomously. It’s a software company. They don’t own planes.
Partnership model: Merlin Labs collaborates with aviation companies like Dynamic Aviation to install its technology on existing aircraft fleets.
Focus on technology: The company's focus is on developing and selling the autonomous flight system itself.
No intention to be an airline: Merlin Labs has stated it has no intention of becoming an airline or operating planes itself, aiming instead to provide its services to other operators.
The stock ripped higher today closing at $12.75 on NEWS of a collaboration with the USAF. Merlin already has several govt contracts under its belt.
I jumped back in today with 200 shares, but it’s very early still. Less than 500 watchers on StockTwits is comical.
Unfortunately I sold my 1,860 rights/warrants yesterday
Merlin Labs
This post was edited on 3/23/26 at 9:07 pm
5
Posted on 10/23/25 at 9:18 pm to bayoubengals88
Contracts in place:
- July 2022: U.S. Air Force OTA Contract (value in tens of millions)
Agreement under Other Transaction Authority to develop and integrate Merlin Pilot autonomous flight technology into the C-130J Super Hercules transport aircraft for reduced crew operations.
- April 2023: FAA Contract ($1 million)
Award to demonstrate autonomous flight control system in Alaska-based trials for rural air cargo delivery, focusing on FAA certification of non-human pilot operations.
- February 2024: U.S. Air Force CRADA
Multi-year Cooperative Research and Development Agreement with Air Mobility Command and Air Force Materiel Command to integrate Merlin Pilot on KC-135 Stratotanker for autonomous refueling demonstrations and next-generation capabilities.
- June 2024: U.S. Special Operations Command SBIR Phase III IDIQ Contract ($105 million, 5 years)**
Indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract to design, test, integrate, and sustain advanced autonomy systems on C-130J Super Hercules for reduced aircrew, with expansion to broader SOF fixed-wing fleet.
October 23, 2025
- Merlin Labs Signs New CRADA with USAF: Boston-based Merlin announced a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) with the U.S. Air Force to enhance autonomous flight technology. The partnership focuses on improving mission resilience in contested environments through human-machine teaming and advanced software, building on Merlin's prior USAF collaborations. This supports their upcoming public listing via merger with Inflection Point Acquisition Corp.
And Northrop (major defense contractor):
Merlin Labs' Agreement with Northrop Grumman
- July 30, 2025: Partnership Agreement for Beacon™ Testbed Integration
Non-monetary collaboration to integrate Merlin Pilot autonomous flight software into Northrop Grumman's Beacon™ ecosystem, a next-gen testbed unveiled in June 2025. Focuses on accelerating development, testing, and validation of autonomy capabilities on military aircraft like the Scaled Composites Model 437 Vanguard (modified for optional autonomy), aligning with U.S. government defense requirements. Supports Merlin's platform-agnostic strategy and reduces risks for uncrewed systems in contested environments, building on Merlin's USSOCOM C-130J and USAF KC-135 integrations.
- July 2022: U.S. Air Force OTA Contract (value in tens of millions)
Agreement under Other Transaction Authority to develop and integrate Merlin Pilot autonomous flight technology into the C-130J Super Hercules transport aircraft for reduced crew operations.
- April 2023: FAA Contract ($1 million)
Award to demonstrate autonomous flight control system in Alaska-based trials for rural air cargo delivery, focusing on FAA certification of non-human pilot operations.
- February 2024: U.S. Air Force CRADA
Multi-year Cooperative Research and Development Agreement with Air Mobility Command and Air Force Materiel Command to integrate Merlin Pilot on KC-135 Stratotanker for autonomous refueling demonstrations and next-generation capabilities.
- June 2024: U.S. Special Operations Command SBIR Phase III IDIQ Contract ($105 million, 5 years)**
Indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract to design, test, integrate, and sustain advanced autonomy systems on C-130J Super Hercules for reduced aircrew, with expansion to broader SOF fixed-wing fleet.
October 23, 2025
- Merlin Labs Signs New CRADA with USAF: Boston-based Merlin announced a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) with the U.S. Air Force to enhance autonomous flight technology. The partnership focuses on improving mission resilience in contested environments through human-machine teaming and advanced software, building on Merlin's prior USAF collaborations. This supports their upcoming public listing via merger with Inflection Point Acquisition Corp.
And Northrop (major defense contractor):
Merlin Labs' Agreement with Northrop Grumman
- July 30, 2025: Partnership Agreement for Beacon™ Testbed Integration
Non-monetary collaboration to integrate Merlin Pilot autonomous flight software into Northrop Grumman's Beacon™ ecosystem, a next-gen testbed unveiled in June 2025. Focuses on accelerating development, testing, and validation of autonomy capabilities on military aircraft like the Scaled Composites Model 437 Vanguard (modified for optional autonomy), aligning with U.S. government defense requirements. Supports Merlin's platform-agnostic strategy and reduces risks for uncrewed systems in contested environments, building on Merlin's USSOCOM C-130J and USAF KC-135 integrations.
This post was edited on 10/23/25 at 9:23 pm
Posted on 10/24/25 at 5:30 am to bayoubengals88
Nice I’ll start a small position
Posted on 10/24/25 at 11:12 am to bayoubengals88
In!
Bayou lead us to the promised land
Bayou lead us to the promised land
Posted on 3/23/26 at 1:55 pm to YungBuck
When Crossroads Capital talks, I listen.
They were the first to ever write a substantial report on NBIS, and they did it around $20/share in Dec of 2024.
There bull scenario for Dec of 2027 is $243.
Well, here they are with a big write up on Merlin, which is now trading as MRLN.
The Long Duration Case for Merlin Labs
They were the first to ever write a substantial report on NBIS, and they did it around $20/share in Dec of 2024.
There bull scenario for Dec of 2027 is $243.
Well, here they are with a big write up on Merlin, which is now trading as MRLN.
The Long Duration Case for Merlin Labs
Posted on 3/23/26 at 1:58 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:Shiiiii......
Our variant view is simple: the market sees a quirky SPAC and a hard-to-model autonomy story without much disclosure; we see the leading candidate to become the operating system of record for defense-grade autonomous flight, backed by tier-one partners (GE Aerospace, Northrop Grumman, Honeywell), Baillie Gifford and other high-signal PIPE investors, and an installed-base licensing model with clear unit economics. If Merlin merely executes on existing defense programs, we see multi-bagger potential; if it successfully extends into broader U.S. and allied defense fleets and selected civil use cases over time, the upside is an order of magnitude higher.?
Posted on 3/23/26 at 3:47 pm to bayoubengals88
> 
Posted on 3/23/26 at 3:51 pm to bayoubengals88
Posted on 3/23/26 at 3:59 pm to dkreller
IN for 20
Posted on 3/23/26 at 4:01 pm to bayoubengals88
Posted on 3/23/26 at 5:00 pm to The Boat
frick!!!
11.20!!!
11.20!!!
Posted on 3/23/26 at 5:09 pm to bayoubengals88
Is it time to sell AMPX? I'm in at $10
Posted on 3/23/26 at 5:27 pm to The Boat
That’s up to you 
Hoping that this gets beaten down to $9 at open.
I have no warrants and no shares currently!!
Hoping that this gets beaten down to $9 at open.
I have no warrants and no shares currently!!
Posted on 3/23/26 at 5:48 pm to bayoubengals88
Jumped in earlier at 9.71. Will add more if it goes below
Posted on 3/23/26 at 5:53 pm to bayoubengals88
Thanks for the info Bayou. Hoping for $9? or thinkin its a sell the news situation. Looks like it wants to go
Posted on 3/23/26 at 6:19 pm to LChama
It is so difficult to say.
I haven’t read nearly enough.
We could have a Swarmer SWMR situation on our hands if word gets out.
It’s an extremely relevant theme with disruptive technology and quite a bit of validation (military).
Y’all feel free to help me with the financials, but the Crossroads write up is deeply enticing. Keep in mind that they do own the stock at 6.80
I haven’t read nearly enough.
We could have a Swarmer SWMR situation on our hands if word gets out.
It’s an extremely relevant theme with disruptive technology and quite a bit of validation (military).
Y’all feel free to help me with the financials, but the Crossroads write up is deeply enticing. Keep in mind that they do own the stock at 6.80
Posted on 3/23/26 at 6:36 pm to bayoubengals88
When did you quit pharma stocks
I’m hesitant to buy because of that
I’m hesitant to buy because of that
Posted on 3/23/26 at 6:51 pm to el Gaucho
It’s all on the website here.
Though you don’t deserve an answer, December 2024.
I pitched two pharma stocks here.
Both provided numerous opportunities for exit.
Though you don’t deserve an answer, December 2024.
I pitched two pharma stocks here.
Both provided numerous opportunities for exit.
Posted on 3/23/26 at 7:07 pm to bayoubengals88
Also, I’m not buying because of me.
I’m buying based on what I read from Crossroads.
Best of luck to you all, whether .25% position or whatever may come.
I’m buying based on what I read from Crossroads.
Best of luck to you all, whether .25% position or whatever may come.
Posted on 3/23/26 at 7:49 pm to bayoubengals88
A word on Crossroads Capital:
Crossroads Capital (crossroadscap.io, run by Ryan O’Connor) is a small, research-driven, value-oriented long-bias fund focused on mispriced emerging compounders and special situations.
They publish detailed public insights and investor letters outlining high-conviction theses, often with explicit base/bull/bear scenarios, multi-year ramps (frequently framed around 3–5+ year execution horizons to normalized earnings or ARR), entry valuations, and asymmetric return profiles. Their style is concentrated/high-conviction, forward-looking (emphasizing structural moats over current metrics), and they share excerpts from longer LP reports.
Overall credibility on these theses:
High for their niche—rigorous (unit economics, contracts, comps, community diligence like “SpaceMob”), transparent (public excerpts + letters), and performance-backed (winners like NBIS delivered exactly the re-rating/visibility they modeled). Not infallible (execution risk is always caveated; new names like Merlin unproven), and concentrated style means drawdowns happen, but the base-case frameworks have shown predictive power where tested. They’re credible independent researchers with skin in the game via the fund, not generic sell-side. If you’re aligned with long-duration, high-upside special situations, their work is worth following closely (site has free insights; letters more detailed). Past results don’t guarantee future, but the pattern is positive.
Crossroads Capital (crossroadscap.io, run by Ryan O’Connor) is a small, research-driven, value-oriented long-bias fund focused on mispriced emerging compounders and special situations.
They publish detailed public insights and investor letters outlining high-conviction theses, often with explicit base/bull/bear scenarios, multi-year ramps (frequently framed around 3–5+ year execution horizons to normalized earnings or ARR), entry valuations, and asymmetric return profiles. Their style is concentrated/high-conviction, forward-looking (emphasizing structural moats over current metrics), and they share excerpts from longer LP reports.
Overall credibility on these theses:
High for their niche—rigorous (unit economics, contracts, comps, community diligence like “SpaceMob”), transparent (public excerpts + letters), and performance-backed (winners like NBIS delivered exactly the re-rating/visibility they modeled). Not infallible (execution risk is always caveated; new names like Merlin unproven), and concentrated style means drawdowns happen, but the base-case frameworks have shown predictive power where tested. They’re credible independent researchers with skin in the game via the fund, not generic sell-side. If you’re aligned with long-duration, high-upside special situations, their work is worth following closely (site has free insights; letters more detailed). Past results don’t guarantee future, but the pattern is positive.
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