EU deal based on unrealistic energy purchases analyst say

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The EU has agreed to purchase $750 billion of U.S. energy and invest $600 billion in the U.S. by 2028, according to the White House. In exchange, Trump has agreed to a tariff of 15% on EU goods excluding steel and aluminum, which is half the 30% rate that he had threatened.

But the $600 billion investment in the U.S. is not binding on EU member states or companies. The European Commission, the bloc’s executive body, simply said that companies “have expressed interest in investing at least” that amount in the U.S by 2029.

The massive energy purchases in the deal are unrealistic due to market and political constraints, analysts said. The EU cannot force member states and companies to buy U.S. energy just as the Trump administration cannot force producers to sell to Europe, said Mathieu Utting, an analyst at Rystad Energy.

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While the headline $750 billion figure is unrealistic, the EU is showing that it is serious about expanding its energy trade with the U.S., said Alex Munton, director of global gas and LNG research at Rapidan Energy.

The EU was already planning to eliminate what remains of Russian LNG and pipeline gas imports to the bloc by 2028. This will create a supply gap of 25 million metric tons per year that the U.S. is perfectly positioned to fill, Munton said.

“The interests line up, they go hand in hand,” he said. “That’s why it’s essentially a convenient deal.”

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