Retail shortages will come in waves

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Supply chain experts say that lower-end stores will be hit hard by tariffs on low-cost imports and if they run lean on inventory, that will be seen much faster.

“The U.S. retail system is built on speed and scale,” said Casey Armstrong, CMO of ShipBob, a global fulfillment and supply chain platform. “When that engine stutters — whether from tariffs, customs delays, or sourcing constraints — it’s the lowest-margin, fastest-moving goods that disappear first.”

Armstrong warned the first signs of empty shelves would show up where price-sensitive imports dominate the shelf — like toys, games, and budget home goods, in addition to apparel. “These are the canaries in the coal mine of a disrupted supply chain,” he said.

Armstrong thinks toys and seasonal kids’ goods, including back-to-school items, will disappear first because of the shortened lead times and the timing of tariffs.

Fast fashion and apparel — basics, tees, leggings, socks, and some kids’ clothing — would follow. “There is often fast turnover on apparel, and thin margins mean low buffer stock,” Armstrong said.

Low-cost home goods and the consumer electronics supply will be constrained because even though many products in these categories are not “final-assembled in China,” their components often are, according to Armstrong. “Also, many products are refreshed frequently (phones, earbuds, etc.). Some Amazon sellers and big-box stores may have gaps in cheaper electronics and accessories,” he said.

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