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Started By
Message
Trump will win the popular vote
Posted on 10/17/24 at 7:27 am
Posted on 10/17/24 at 7:27 am
I have moved from likely to certain
Today in 2016: Clinton polling average up 7%, she won by 2.1% (4.9% swing to Trump)
Today in 2020: Biden polling average up 9%. he won by 4.5% (4.5% swing to Trump)
Today in 2024: Harris polling average up 1.6%
Trump will win the Popular vote. Even James Carville said "if you aren't up by more than 3% against Trump, you are losing"
Trump will win the PV, and the EC. Colorado will have to give him their 10. . .
It is a bad day for the War Machine, and that means. . .
Today in 2016: Clinton polling average up 7%, she won by 2.1% (4.9% swing to Trump)
Today in 2020: Biden polling average up 9%. he won by 4.5% (4.5% swing to Trump)
Today in 2024: Harris polling average up 1.6%
Trump will win the Popular vote. Even James Carville said "if you aren't up by more than 3% against Trump, you are losing"
Trump will win the PV, and the EC. Colorado will have to give him their 10. . .
It is a bad day for the War Machine, and that means. . .
This post was edited on 10/17/24 at 7:29 am
8
Posted on 10/17/24 at 7:29 am to Roaad
And in other breaking news today:
DEMS ARE JACKASSES!
DEMS ARE JACKASSES!
Posted on 10/17/24 at 7:36 am to Roaad
I don’t think people are quite as shy about supporting Trump like they were the last two cycles. Having said that, I think D is over sampled in polling. I think he wins the popular vote but not as big as you project.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 7:39 am to Roaad
If he did it would be a stunning election.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 7:41 am to BigPerm30
quote:I think that is true
I don’t think people are quite as shy about supporting Trump like they were the last two cycles.
I don't think they were as shy in 2020, either.
Even if it is a considerably less pointed swing than 2020. . .
2016 4.9%
2020 4.5%
now let's say it is only say 3%
Trump wins by 1.4%
Posted on 10/17/24 at 7:43 am to Roaad
it's fun to think about, but Trump ain't winning the popular vote. i don't think any Republican will win the popular vote ever again.
when one party stumps for "we'll give you everything you want while the other person pays for it", the other party will suffer.
when one party stumps for "we'll give you everything you want while the other person pays for it", the other party will suffer.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 7:43 am to Roaad
quote:
Colorado will have to give him their 10.
I don't agree with you. I think this will be an EC victory, but if this happened it would be delicious.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 7:44 am to Roaad
Will be epic if he does and those certain states with the new laws have to give him their EVs 
This post was edited on 10/17/24 at 8:08 am
Posted on 10/17/24 at 7:45 am to finchmeister08
That’s why Walz and others are complaining about the electoral college.
If the Rust Belt states remain purple, or trend red, they can win every election with the popular, yet lose the EC
If the Rust Belt states remain purple, or trend red, they can win every election with the popular, yet lose the EC
This post was edited on 10/17/24 at 7:46 am
Posted on 10/17/24 at 7:46 am to finchmeister08
quote:Prepare to be shocked
Trump ain't winning the popular vote.
Harris has less momentum than Hillary
Remember that Trump won in 2016 because Dems didn't show up at the polls. Nobody was geeked about Hillary. 2020 was fueled by BLM/Covid/etc.
Nobody is geeked for Harris.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 7:47 am to prouddawg
quote:watch how quickly those laws get changed
Will be epic if he does and those certain states with the new laws have to give him their EVs
Posted on 10/17/24 at 7:48 am to doubleb
I will be so proud of my country if this becomes true. The Momentum will carry us towards success for years to come.
Let’s Go USA! America First!
Let’s Go USA! America First!
Posted on 10/17/24 at 7:53 am to Roaad
Great but we need him to be seated and the establishment is looking for him not to be, one way or another .
Posted on 10/17/24 at 7:56 am to Roaad
There may have been 81 million voting 2020 as stated but I don’t doubt that 20 million votes were counted and stacked in he democrat pile by “mistake “
Posted on 10/17/24 at 7:57 am to Roaad
I like the positive attitude, but winning the popular vote is a long shot.
The LEFT outnumber the RIGHT.
The LEFT outnumber the RIGHT.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 8:03 am to Nosevens
So this election is different.
If you look at the election there has ben a Democrat advantage for 20 years. That tracks pretty well with the popular vote.
The other thing to consider is these polls almost always have a democratic shift.
I have seen a recent one where dems were over sampled by 7 to Republicans.
According to a recent gallop poll, there are more that identify as republican.
There is a real possibility that trump wins the popular vote.
I'm curious to see what Colorado will do in that case.
If you look at the election there has ben a Democrat advantage for 20 years. That tracks pretty well with the popular vote.
The other thing to consider is these polls almost always have a democratic shift.
I have seen a recent one where dems were over sampled by 7 to Republicans.
According to a recent gallop poll, there are more that identify as republican.
There is a real possibility that trump wins the popular vote.
I'm curious to see what Colorado will do in that case.
Posted on 10/17/24 at 8:07 am to thetempleowl
I agree and I think he did last time but we’re not going to allow it. No way Biden topped Trump in total votes
Posted on 10/17/24 at 8:22 am to doubleb
quote:
If he did it would be a stunning election.
"a referendum!"
Posted on 10/17/24 at 8:38 am to oldskule
quote:I mean, barely.
The LEFT outnumber the RIGHT.
But it doesn't matter if they don't vote.
Dems outnumbered the GOP in 2016, too.
It is about voter enthusiasm. Nobody is excited for Kamala. . .and not enough anti-Trump enthusiasm, like in 2020.
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