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Here. Bookmark this for when Trump wins. Why Trump is playing the "Tariff Game"

Posted on 10/12/24 at 4:30 pm
Posted by boomtown143
Member since May 2019
9407 posts
Posted on 10/12/24 at 4:30 pm


quote:

Here. Bookmark this for when Trump wins.

Everyone who is a pragmatic critical thinker knows that China will devalue their currency to lower the impact of exports to the USA. Beijing controls the banks and they did this before. As a result, the dollar value increases and imports cost less.

The Chinese imports then enter the USA at a lower price consistent with their cost estimate as a tariff offset. China takes in a lower price, but retains access. That's just how it works. The importers pay the tariff with a lowered price and a higher valued dollar. Essentially statis for the time being. Then.....

EU industrial products to Chinese manufacturing plants start to contract, due to China's aggressive cost cutting initiatives. The EU gets angry about the impact to their economy. The EU then follows the same path and devalues their central bank currency; further pressuring the dollar to an upward price. Exports to the EU are now more expensive, and imports from the EU to the USA are now cheaper. Again, the EU goal is statis.

Both scenarios create cheaper USA imports despite the tariffs. However, on the EU side Trump then ends the Marshal plan and executes "tariff reciprocity" against the EU. More frustration and gritted teeth by Brussels.

[NOTE: Avoiding this squeeze also explains why U.K PM Starmer was all snuggly to Trump at Trump Tower a few weeks ago - he's hedging.]

Exports from the USA ultimately cost more because the dollar is stronger against EU and Asia currencies. However, a stronger dollar is an offset to BRICS leverage and allows Trump to play economic chess.

Trump uses part of the tariff income to underwrite agriculture exports, but... here we have fun... if agriculture exports are impacted, domestic foodstuffs drop in price.

Into this dynamic Trump turns to Mexico. We have a strong dollar, all those Western Union transfers to Mexico are more valuable. Leverage is created. The economic situation then overlays the secure border dynamic and if Mexico wants to retain trade access within the USMCA agreement, the part that no one discussed comes into play.

Unbeknownst to all those except those who watched Robert Lighthizer do it, the USA has first right of refusal to any trade agreement made by Mexico or Canada. That's correct, Trump now controls a veto on trade agreements within USMCA partnered countries. Suddenly Xi Jinping is vulnerable in Mexico if Trump nixes the EV production. Beijing is financially exposed and vulnerable. Big Panda not happy.

How do we know this will happen? Good question.

Answer: #1) This is what Trump did in 2017. #2) Because he said this is what he is going to do.

Don't forget to bookmark. MAGA Bitches!
Posted by Jjdoc
Cali
Member since Mar 2016
55386 posts
Posted on 10/13/24 at 8:21 am to
Yep!


Posted by SquatchDawg
Cohutta Wilderness
Member since Sep 2012
19204 posts
Posted on 10/13/24 at 9:02 am to
A lot of Trumps bluster about tariffs and other policy is part of his negotiating tactics to get to something “better”. In their TDS a lot of people take his statements literally to use against him.

The whole NATO conversation about pulling out and letting Russia do what they want to is a prime example. That was the club he used to get NATO to start living up to their obligations. Whoever you’re negotiating with has to truly believe you’re willing to walk away if you don’t get what you want.
Posted by el Gaucho
He/They
Member since Dec 2010
58517 posts
Posted on 10/14/24 at 8:35 am to
Hope you en-JOY paying 10 bucks for a pack of hot dog buns and $20 for a pack of BRATs next 4th of july

If we aren’t deployed to ww3
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