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re: Forecaster who hasn't missed a presidential prediction in 40 YEARS reveals prediction
Posted on 5/1/24 at 7:54 am to Covingtontiger77
Posted on 5/1/24 at 7:54 am to Covingtontiger77
quote:
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero
This post was edited on 5/1/24 at 7:55 am
1
Posted on 5/1/24 at 8:07 am to lowhound
Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
No, we just have high and growing inflation and rates.
2 year inverted yield curve is still happening and a recession follows that. Always. The average time lag can span 12 to 24 months, according to the San Francisco Fed. Since 1978, the longest delay between a yield curve inversion and the start of a recession was 22 months
No, we just have high and growing inflation and rates.
2 year inverted yield curve is still happening and a recession follows that. Always. The average time lag can span 12 to 24 months, according to the San Francisco Fed. Since 1978, the longest delay between a yield curve inversion and the start of a recession was 22 months
quote:
Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
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