re: Were we wrong about Iran's strike on Israel?

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Iran trying a Zerg rush against Israel only works if they get a kill shot in IMHO.

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I think it was initially a rush they believed would overwhelm the Iron Dome (and then they would follow it up), but when 50% of their shite failed on its own before ever getting to Israel (hell, even before getting out of Iranian airspace in some instances) they began backing down their expectations to a "well, let's see how much gets through" stance. Once other countries joined in the defense, they backed further down to "this was always no more than a response for bombing our consulate and now we're done."

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If they don’t, the Israeli response will frick then up.

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We'll see. Jordan sits between Iran and Israel (so does Iraq, but they've pretty much become Iran's bitch, at least when it comes to Israel) and they have a rather large Palestinian population. That population isn't happy Jordan assisted with Israel's defense, but then King Abdullah isn't happy that Iran decided to invade their airspace with their shitty missiles and drones.

So while Jordan helped Israel, I don't see them providing access for a retaliatory strike against Iran and that makes things more difficult for Israel. Israel my take advantage of their warming relations with the Saudis (and SA's adversarial relationship with Iran) to transport, then launch a response from SA but that seems doubtful. More likely they would engage in my cyber-attacks or guerilla attacks on their nuclear facilities. In other words, there will be a response but it won't be anywhere as showy as Iran's (but likely be more impactful).