quote:
This goes with a subject I almost made into a thread yesterday.

It's been 20 years since the GOP has won the popular vote, and that required a war-time incumbent to do it.

Before that you have to go back to his father in 1988.

So over the past 9 presidential elections (36 years), only 2 have had the GOP winning the popular vote. It's almost guaranteed 2024 will be a DEM popular vote victory again.

True but it is not guranteed that the dems win a majority of the popular vote. What happens then? Well since this thread is talking about Maine then lets examine Maine's law and use it as a hypothetical standard for all the states in the compact.

quote:
A. If there are 2 or fewer continuing candidates, the candidate with the most votes is
declared the winner of the election.
B. If there are more than 2 continuing candidates, the last-place candidate is defeated
removed from consideration and a new round begins

Maine will use a ranked choice if there are more than 2 candidates if the NPV ever goes into effect. Lets take a look at what happens when we apply a ranked choice system to the elections where neither candidate won a majority of the popular vote. If Perot voters and the other right leaning voters ranked GHWB ahead of WJC then GHWB wins in 1992. If Ross Perot voters ranked Bob Dole ahead of WJC then WJC loses in 1996. Gore would have won 2000 if Ralph Nader voters ranked Gore ahead of W. In 2016, DJT would beaten HRC. Assuming that left leaning voters (Jill Stein and Bernie Sanders voters) ranked HRC ahead of DJT and right leaning voters (Gary Johnson, Evan McMullin, Jon Kasich, and Ron Paul voters) ranked DJT ahead of HRC. HRC would have had 67,496,983 and Trump would have had 68,412,083 votes. So it would all depend on how independents and the people who vote for the minor parties rank their candidates.

This post was edited on 4/17/24 at 2:52 pm