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re: Trump's previous substantial lead in RCP polling is now negligible

Posted on 4/17/24 at 10:58 am to
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
119336 posts
Posted on 4/17/24 at 10:58 am to
quote:

These two statements contradict each other.


They are historical independent events at specific times. They don't contradict each other.

quote:

n 2020 Biden was able to beat Trump by about 90,000 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (Biden didn't even need Georgia or Arizona or Nevada)
Electoral score was Biden 306 Trump 232.



In 2020, Trump lost GA, AZ and WI by ~42,500 votes. If those three states were in Trump's column there would have been a 269 tie.
Posted by ronricks
Member since Mar 2021
7245 posts
Posted on 4/17/24 at 11:05 am to
quote:

In 2020, Trump lost GA, AZ and WI by ~42,500 votes. If those three states were in Trump's column there would have been a 269 tie.


But that didn't happen and there was no tie. The 2016 and 2020 elections were basically mirror images of each other. So, if one of them won convincingly or handedly then so did the other.
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