re: CPI comes in hotter than expected, futures down 1%+

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Uh, the job numbers are being driven by illegal aliens filling low paid part-time jobs. If you look at full-time jobs and jobs held by Americans the picture ain’t great. We’ve lost a healthy number of full time jobs over the last year or so.

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Some yes, some no.

This is why I included the points of jobless claims. Initial claims have remained flat since the beginning of 2022, continuing claims rose slightly since 2022, but have been flat since last summer. Combine that with the Unemployment rate and we see that IF Americans are losing their jobs en masse, they are either getting replacement jobs quickly or they are somehow living without making jobless claims or going onto other sorts of government assistance.

The problem with inflation will continue as long as people are employed at high levels. Wage growth is chasing inflation and inflation is being driven (to some extent) by wage growth (and all of this, along with consumer and federal debt creation, is working together to keep GDP strong). Eventually that system breaks and when it does, we'll see that reported in the Unemployment and Jobless Claims numbers. When that happens, the economy will slow (the longer workers are out of work, the more the economy will slow). Once it slows enough, rates will be cut.