re: CPI comes in hotter than expected, futures down 1%+

I've said for a while now that we're more likely to see another hike before we see a cut, I continue to stand by that statement.

It doesn't matter how warped the job numbers are, as long as the actual job creation is ~200k or more and both initial and continued jobless claims remain low. These combine to tell us that workers are easily able to job-jump to other positions if they get laid off.

Those workers then do not need to change their spending habits, meaning the economy roars on. They are also continuing to create liquidity through increasing debt, just like the federal government.

As long as this is going on, inflation is going to keep being resistant to the efforts of rates at their current level.

Going forward, we're getting into the more expensive summer blends of gasoline, gasoline demand goes up in the spring and summer and OPEC is likely to keep their production rates down at their next meeting. Since the price of oil (and gasoline) impacts the price of everything, more inflation is coming.

All of this is why I've said the "soft landing" rhetoric is about as reliable and accurate as was the talk of inflation being "transitory".