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re: A debt 'time bomb' looms for New Orleans' downtown office market

Posted on 3/21/24 at 9:36 am to
Posted by Bard
Definitely NOT an admin
Member since Oct 2008
51959 posts
Posted on 3/21/24 at 9:36 am to
quote:

This is one of those scenarios where deflation is ultimately necessary, but the initial pain will hurt severely due to the debt relied upon.


Deflation is when there's low demand but high supply, this usually occurs because of rising unemployment causing consumers to purchase fewer items. The economic scenario we're in now has consumers trying to fight inflation by tapping their savings while also charging historic highs to credit cards (which have historically high interest rates). Real wages are sluggish and more and more consumers are going into delinquency (including 90+ days, which is usually a default).

All of this is to say that for enough deflation to happen to help those businesses, it would mean the economy is already in a massive shitter to the point where it may harm the business' ability to pay. In other words, the cure may do more damage than the disease.

Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
425036 posts
Posted on 3/21/24 at 9:51 am to
quote:

The economic scenario we're in now has consumers trying to fight inflation by tapping their savings while also charging historic highs to credit cards


This is causing

quote:

Deflation is when there's low demand


That's the inter-relation between inflation and deflation. CRE is too expensive and demand is decreasing. Prices need to decrease due to these market forces, but the issue is the debtload won't allow that easily.

quote:

All of this is to say that for enough deflation to happen to help those businesses, it would mean the economy is already in a massive shitter to the point where it may harm the business' ability to pay. In other words, the cure may do more damage than the disease.

The other option is publicly-financed inflation via class-specific protectionism.
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