re: NIT: LSU Men hosting North Texas in Opening Round, Tuesday at 6 PM CT, SECN/ESPN+

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All I remember about the game that while North Texas was a tough "out", I felt like LSU was the better team.

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It was a close game throughout with NTU leading most of the second half. It was a 3 point game with 2:00 to go. LSU pulled away a bit at the end. It was one of many games this year where LSU easily outshot their opponent in terms of FG% LSU shot 50% compared to NTU's 32%. But NTU had 12 more FG attempts and made 12 pointers. LSU did not shoot it well from 3 that day. They also got beat on the glass.

On a positive note, LSU became a better 3 point shooting team as the season went along. They also got a little better at defending the 3.

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I am surprised that we are only a 2.5 point favorite at home unless North Texas improved as well or was missing someone important in that game.

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Looking at LSU objectively away from the prism of fanhood you see they really aren't that good of a team. The line is what it is because LSU's predictive data metrics suck. As it sits today LSU is 91st in the KenPom ratings (12th among SEC teams) NTU is nearly 20 spots higher at 73. A variation of that data is what is used to set lines. Not just some nerds sitting around subjectively thinking LSU is "better". LSU had that one really good week where they beat South Carolina and Kentucky. But before that they were 1-6 in the prior 7 games and 3-3 after the Kentucky game with all three wins coming against teams at the bottom of the SEC.

That's not to say this year doesn't represent progress from last season, nor that LSU can't beat NTU. It's just that the line is what it is because, frankly, LSU's just not that good.