re: So basically, if RFK continues forward as an Independent he will ensure a Democrat..

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Polling doesn't support this

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Maybe not the right thread for this but I’ll go anyway.

Polling has gotten more and more suspect. It’s getting harder every year to reach a truly representative sample. Many polls incentivize participation, leading to fraud and bots taking polls. For those that don’t incentivize, it tends to skew too old and to certain other demos.

The solution to the latter from pollsters is to weight the polling data, which introduces its own statistical issues.

We’ve seen the effects of these issues become more pronounced in recent election cycles.